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Cabot (COG) Q3 Earnings: Will Price Gains Offset Low Output?

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Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation is set to report third-quarter 2018 results on Oct 26, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter to be reported is pegged at a profit of 28 cents per share on revenues of $462.8 million. This compares favorably with the year-ago profit of 7 cents. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings moved up by a penny in the past 30 days.

Headquartered in Texas, Cabot is primarily a gas exploration company with producing properties mainly in continental United States. In the last reported quarter, it delivered a negative earnings surprise of 31.58% on lower-than-anticipated realized gas prices. Coming to earnings surprise history, Cabot displays a mixed performance, having surpassed estimates in two out of the trailing four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 7.82%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up prior to the announcement.

Factors at Play

While we believe that Cabot is likely to benefit from higher realized natural gas prices in the quarter, lower-than-anticipated production may limit the overall earnings.

Notably, during the last reported quarter, the company announced that it anticipated net production in the range of 2,100-2,200 million cubic feet equivalent a day (MMcfe/d) for the third quarter. However, the company recently issued a statement, per which, it now expects output for the third quarter to stand at 2,029 MMcfe/d, down from the prior projection. Importantly, the company’s estimated production is also lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 2,200 MMcfe/d.

Delays in the in-service date of the Atlantic Sunrise pipeline project — chiefly operated by Williams Companies Inc. (WMB - Free Report) — along with slight changes in the timing of pads, being placed on production in the third quarter, are mainly responsible for lower-than-expected output. Notably, the Atlantic Sunrise Pipeline was earlier scheduled to come online in mid-August, but the dates were pushed back to Oct 6, which will impact Cabot’s third-quarter results.

However, increased realized prices for natural gas are likely to counter the limitations in output. Per the company’s recent update, natural gas price realizations for the third quarter are expected at $2.36 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.29 per Mcf and also higher than the prior-year figure of $2.03/Mcf.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model shows that Cabot is unlikely to beat estimates in the to-be-reported quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to be able to beat the consensus estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is -0.16%.

Zacks Rank: Cabot currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. Though a Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP, a negative ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Ranks #4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Though an earnings beat looks uncertain for Cabot, here are a few firms from the energy space that you may want to consider. On the basis of our model, these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the quarter to be reported.

Concho Resources Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +2.59% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is expected to release third-quarter earnings on Oct 30. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation has an Earnings ESP of +1.15% and holds a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to report third-quarter earnings on Oct 30.

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