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Allison Transmission (ALSN) Q3 Earnings: Is a Beat Likely?

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Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter 2018 earnings results on Oct 30. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a positive surprise of 29%. It surpassed estimates in all of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 39.8%.

In the past three months, shares of Allison Transmission have outperformed the industry it belongs to. The stock has advanced 10.2% against 18.7% decrease recorded by the industry during the period.

Let’s see, how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Why a Positive Surprise is Likely

Our proven model shows that Allison Transmission is likely to beat earnings estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Allison Transmission has an Earnings ESP of +1.68% as the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $1.11 and $1.09, respectively. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Allison Transmission currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is witnessing negative estimate revisions.

What’s Driving Better-Than-Expected Earnings

Augmented demand across markets encouraged Allison Transmission to raise 2018 earnings guidance. In second-quarter earnings release, it raised year-over-year net sales expectation to 15-18% from 10-14% stated earlier. Similarly, net income is expected to be $570-$600 million compared with $515-$550 million mentioned earlier.

Strong cash flow enables Allison Transmission to focus and invest on the strategy of developing product and technology, and return capital to shareholders. In the last month, it announced that its 9-speed transmission was available. The transmission can be used for distribution trucks, rental and lease trucks, and school buses. It was developed using electric hybrid system, with electric extended range.

The company partners with telematics service providers and original equipment manufacturers to provide connected capabilities to customers. In September, Allison Transmission collaborated with two companies to offer transmission health information. The company’s diagnostic codes can monitor various operating parameters of fleets across all modes.

For the soon-to-be-released quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales of North America Off-Highway and Outside North America Off-Highway end markets are $26.5 million and $19.4 million, respectively. In the last reported quarter, the North America Off-Highway end market’s net sales were $31 million, while the figure for Outside North America Off-Highway end market was $24 million.

Moreover, respective net sales estimates for third-quarter 2018 for Outside North America On-Highway; Military; and Service Parts, Support Equipment and Other end markets are $98 million, $37.6 million and $144 million, respectively. In second-quarter 2018, the net sales figure for Outside North America On-Highway; Military; and Service Parts, Support Equipment and Other end markets were $101 million, $37.6 million and $169 million, respectively.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are a few other stocks worth considering from the same space, with the right combination of elements to outpace earnings estimates this time around:

Cummins Inc. (CMI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.46% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company will report third-quarter 2018 financial figures on Oct 30.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company’s third-quarter financial results are expected to be released on Nov 13.

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.08% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company’s first-quarter fiscal 2019 financial results are anticipated to be released on Dec 4.

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