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Macerich (MAC) to Post Q3 Earnings: A Beat in the Offing?

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The Macerich Company (MAC - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2018 results on Oct 31, after the market closes.

In the last reported quarter, this retail real estate investment trust (REIT) delivered an in-line performance in terms of funds from operations (FFO) per share. Results were backed by growth in re-leasing spreads and tenant sales growth.

Over the trailing four quarters, Macerich beat estimates in one occasion, met in another and missed in the other two, with an average negative surprise of 0.42%. This is depicted in the chart below:

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

Macerich has concentration of premium malls in vibrant markets. The company also has well-capitalized tenants. It is making concerted efforts to enhance its asset quality and customer relationships. Macerich’s increasing adoption of the omni-channel model in retailing is aimed at improving shopping experience and driving sales volume at tenant stores, thereby, raising demand for the company’s properties.

A recovering economy, better employment scenario and rising incomes from tax cuts are likely to spur demand for retail goods. Also, consumer sentiment remained historically high in the quarter under review. Moreover, upbeat consumer sales and improving net absorption may aid occupancy levels.

Furthermore, Macerich’s activities during the quarter gained analysts’ confidence. Consequently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FFO per share, which witnessed a marginal increase over the last 30 days, is currently pinned at $1.00. The figure also indicates nearly 4.2% rise, year over year.

Nevertheless, despite the company resorting to different strategies, mall traffic continues to remain considerably depressed with consumers increasingly opting for online purchases. This has led to a rising number of retailers joining the dot-com bandwagon. In fact, so far this year, there were several preeminent retail bankruptcy filings and record-high defaults by retail corporates.

Amid these, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues is pegged at $217.2 million — indicating a year-over-year fall of 10.4%. Minimum rental revenues are expected to have registered a marginal decline year over year to $144 million.  

Here is what our quantitative model predicts:

Macerich has the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Macerich is +2.34%.

Zacks Rank: Macerich carries a Zacks Rank #3, currently.

A positive Earnings ESP is a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely beat in terms of FFO per share. This, when combined with a favorable Zacks rank, makes us reasonably confident of a positive surprise.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a few other stocks in the REIT sector that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a positive surprise this quarter:

UDR Inc. (UDR - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Oct 29, has an Earnings ESP of +0.68% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Welltower Inc. (WELL - Free Report) , slated to release third-quarter results on Oct 30, has an Earnings ESP of +2.04% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

Public Storage (PSA - Free Report) , set to report its quarterly numbers on Oct 30, has an Earnings ESP of +1.91% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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