We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. This includes personalizing content and advertising. To learn more, click here. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Service.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Biogen (BIIB) Q4 Earnings Coming Up: What's in the Cards?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Biogen Inc. (BIIB - Free Report) will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2018 results on Jan 29, before market open. Last quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 8.82%.
Biogen’s shares declined 2.9% in the past year compared with the industry’s decline of 21.3% in the same time frame.
Biogen’s earnings performance has been decent so far. The company delivered a positive surprise in three of the last four quarters. The average earnings beat over the last four quarters is 4.66%.
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement
Factors to Consider
The performance of Biogen’s multiple sclerosis (MS) drugs has been stable lately. Tecfidera U.S. revenues improved in the third quarter. Meanwhile, ex-U.S. sales were strong driven by patient growth across European markets, solid emerging market growth and particularly strong performance in Japan, which offset the impact of ongoing price decreases in certain European countries.
U.S. sales of another MS drug, Tysabri have been hurt by Roche’s (RHHBY - Free Report) newly launched MS drug, Ocrevus. Meanwhile, patient growth in all major European markets and solid emerging market growth is pushing up Tysabri’s sales in ex-U.S. markets.
In the fourth quarter, Biogen expects worldwide MS product revenues to be stable from the year-ago period, benefiting from a moderate inventory channel build and less significant impact of Ocrevus on a year-over-year basis.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Tecfidera in the fourth quarter is pegged at $1.10 billion while that for Tysabri (Global In-Market sales) is $452 million.
The combined number of patients using Avonex and Plegridy is expected to decline due to a shift to other oral MS therapies as well as higher discounts and allowance.
Biogen’s new drug, Spinraza, approved for spinal muscular atrophy, performed well in the past two quarters. On the Q3 call, management was optimistic that Spinraza patient starts will grow in the United States in future quarters as it continues to capture the adult segment, which represents approximately 60% of all SMA patients. It had until then penetrated only 15% of the adult segment. Thus, this segment represents presents strong growth opportunity. In ex-U.S. markets, Spinraza’s uptake in the fourth quarter is expected to be driven by continued patient growth, although at a more modest rate in mature markets.
Biosimilars sales in the third quarter rose both year over year and sequentially. Biogen markets two biosimilar products — Flixabi (a biosimilar referencing Remicade) and Benepali (a biosimilar referencing Enbrel). In the fourth quarter, Biogen expects relatively stable biosimilars revenues compared to the third quarter. Importantly, in October, Biogen launched Imraldi, its biosimilar version of AbbVie’s blockbuster drug, Humira in several European markets. This should bring in additional sales in Q4.
Revenues from Biogen’s anti-CD20 therapeutic programs, which include Biogen’s shares of Rituxan and Gazyva operating profits, contributed significantly to the top line in the past two quarters primarily driven by Ocrevus royalties. We expect the positive trend to continue.
Overall, on the Q3 call, management had said that the fourth quarter of 2018 will face difficult comparisons from the prior-year quarter as the latter had benefited from favorable timing of contract manufacturing.
Both R&D and SG&A expenses are expected to sequentially increase in the fourth quarter due to the timing of clinical trial expense and market expansion investments as well as seasonality.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Biogen is likely to beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: Its Earnings ESP is -0.17% as the Most Accurate Estimate stands at $6.71 while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged higher at $6.72. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Biogen’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings beat.
We caution against Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Celgene Corporation has an Earnings ESP of +2.31% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is slated to release results on Jan 31.
Zacks' Top 10 Stocks for 2019
In addition to the stocks discussed above, would you like to know about our 10 finest buy-and-holds for the year?
Who wouldn't? Our annual Top 10s have beaten the market with amazing regularity. In 2018, while the market dropped -5.2%, the portfolio scored well into double-digits overall with individual stocks rising as high as +61.5%. And from 2012-2017, while the market boomed +126.3, Zacks' Top 10s reached an even more sensational +181.9%.
Image: Bigstock
Biogen (BIIB) Q4 Earnings Coming Up: What's in the Cards?
Biogen Inc. (BIIB - Free Report) will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2018 results on Jan 29, before market open. Last quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 8.82%.
Biogen’s shares declined 2.9% in the past year compared with the industry’s decline of 21.3% in the same time frame.
Biogen’s earnings performance has been decent so far. The company delivered a positive surprise in three of the last four quarters. The average earnings beat over the last four quarters is 4.66%.
Biogen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Biogen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Biogen Inc. Quote
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement
Factors to Consider
The performance of Biogen’s multiple sclerosis (MS) drugs has been stable lately. Tecfidera U.S. revenues improved in the third quarter. Meanwhile, ex-U.S. sales were strong driven by patient growth across European markets, solid emerging market growth and particularly strong performance in Japan, which offset the impact of ongoing price decreases in certain European countries.
U.S. sales of another MS drug, Tysabri have been hurt by Roche’s (RHHBY - Free Report) newly launched MS drug, Ocrevus. Meanwhile, patient growth in all major European markets and solid emerging market growth is pushing up Tysabri’s sales in ex-U.S. markets.
In the fourth quarter, Biogen expects worldwide MS product revenues to be stable from the year-ago period, benefiting from a moderate inventory channel build and less significant impact of Ocrevus on a year-over-year basis.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Tecfidera in the fourth quarter is pegged at $1.10 billion while that for Tysabri (Global In-Market sales) is $452 million.
The combined number of patients using Avonex and Plegridy is expected to decline due to a shift to other oral MS therapies as well as higher discounts and allowance.
Biogen’s new drug, Spinraza, approved for spinal muscular atrophy, performed well in the past two quarters. On the Q3 call, management was optimistic that Spinraza patient starts will grow in the United States in future quarters as it continues to capture the adult segment, which represents approximately 60% of all SMA patients. It had until then penetrated only 15% of the adult segment. Thus, this segment represents presents strong growth opportunity. In ex-U.S. markets, Spinraza’s uptake in the fourth quarter is expected to be driven by continued patient growth, although at a more modest rate in mature markets.
Biosimilars sales in the third quarter rose both year over year and sequentially. Biogen markets two biosimilar products — Flixabi (a biosimilar referencing Remicade) and Benepali (a biosimilar referencing Enbrel). In the fourth quarter, Biogen expects relatively stable biosimilars revenues compared to the third quarter. Importantly, in October, Biogen launched Imraldi, its biosimilar version of AbbVie’s blockbuster drug, Humira in several European markets. This should bring in additional sales in Q4.
Revenues from Biogen’s anti-CD20 therapeutic programs, which include Biogen’s shares of Rituxan and Gazyva operating profits, contributed significantly to the top line in the past two quarters primarily driven by Ocrevus royalties. We expect the positive trend to continue.
Overall, on the Q3 call, management had said that the fourth quarter of 2018 will face difficult comparisons from the prior-year quarter as the latter had benefited from favorable timing of contract manufacturing.
Both R&D and SG&A expenses are expected to sequentially increase in the fourth quarter due to the timing of clinical trial expense and market expansion investments as well as seasonality.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Biogen is likely to beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: Its Earnings ESP is -0.17% as the Most Accurate Estimate stands at $6.71 while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged higher at $6.72. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Biogen’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings beat.
We caution against Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Amgen, Inc. (AMGN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.25% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is slated to release results on Jan 29. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Celgene Corporation has an Earnings ESP of +2.31% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is slated to release results on Jan 31.
Zacks' Top 10 Stocks for 2019
In addition to the stocks discussed above, would you like to know about our 10 finest buy-and-holds for the year?
Who wouldn't? Our annual Top 10s have beaten the market with amazing regularity. In 2018, while the market dropped -5.2%, the portfolio scored well into double-digits overall with individual stocks rising as high as +61.5%. And from 2012-2017, while the market boomed +126.3, Zacks' Top 10s reached an even more sensational +181.9%.
See Latest Stocks Today >>