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Why Is Allegion (ALLE) Down 0.2% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Allegion (ALLE - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Allegion due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Allegion Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues In Line

Allegion reported impressive results for fourth-quarter 2018, wherein its adjusted earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues matched the same.

Earnings/Revenues

Quarterly adjusted earnings came in at $1.22 per share, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.21. The bottom line was also 9.9% higher than the year-ago figure. The upside can be primarily attributed to impressive sales growth and improved operating income.

For full-year 2018, Allegion’s adjusted earnings came in at $4.50 per share, up 13.6% on a year-over-year basis.

Revenues for the reported quarter came in at $702.4 million, up 12.7% year over year. Notably, the top line matched the consensus estimate. Revenues improved 6.7% on an organic basis. The stellar performance was backed by solid end-market sales and acquisition benefits in the reported quarter, partially offset by adverse impacts of unfavorable foreign exchange movements.

For 2018, Allegion reported revenues of $2,731.7 million, up 13.4% on a year-over-year basis.

Segmental Break-Up

Revenues in the Americas segment rose 13% year over year to $492.7 million. The EMEIA (Europe, Middle East, India and Africa) segment’s revenues increased 4.4% to $157.4 million. Revenues in the Asia-Pacific segment surged 44.9% to $52.3 million in the reported quarter.

Costs/Margins

In the fourth quarter, Allegion’s cost of sales escalated 15.8% year over year to $401.9 million. Gross profit grew 8.9% while gross margin shrunk 150 basis points (bps) to 42.8%.
Selling and administrative expenses jumped 9.6% year over year to $159.1 million.

Adjusted operating margin contracted 230 bps to 20.1%.

Balance Sheet/Cash Flow

As of Dec 31, 2018, Allegion had cash and cash equivalents of $283.8 million, down from $466.2 recorded as of Dec 31 2017.  Long-term debt was $1,409.5 million, down from $1,442.3 million recorded in 2017-end.

In 2018, the company generated net cash of $457.8 million from its operating activities, surging 31.9% from the previous year. Capital expenditures totaled $49.1 million against $49.3 million used in the last year.

2019 Guidance

Adjusted earnings per share are now expected in the range of $4.75 to $4.90, reflecting an increase of 6% to 9% year over year.

The company expects full-year 2019 revenue growth on both reported and organic basis in the band of 5-6%.

Full-year adjusted effective tax rate is anticipated to be 16%. Available cash flow is targeted to be approximately $430-$450 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted -6.95% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Allegion has a nice Growth Score of B, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Allegion has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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