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Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Up 5.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Gulfport Energy (GPOR - Free Report) . Shares have added about 5.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Gulfport Energy due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Gulfport Q4 Earnings Miss Amid High Costs

Gulfport Energy reported fourth-quarter adjusted net income per share of 46 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 49 cents amid high costs. The figure was just a penny above the prior-year figure.

Revenues of $416 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $380 million. The top line also improved from the year-ago figure of $397.8 million.

Production Rises

Gulfport’s total oil and gas production increased to 1,392.8 million cubic feet equivalent per day (MMcfe/d) from 1,263.3 MMcfe/d recorded in the corresponding period of last year. Of the total output, 90.8% comprised natural gas.  

The company recorded improved year-over-year production from Utica and SCOOP plays during the quarter. Output from Utica and SCOOP totaled 102,665 MMcfe and 24,406 MMcfe, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2018. Nearly 88.1% of its output came from the Utica acreage.

Higher Realized Prices

Average realized natural gas oil price (before the impact of derivatives) during the fourth quarter was $3.16 per thousand cubic feet, higher than the year-ago period’s $2.32. However, average realized natural gas liquids price was 67 cents per gallon, down from the year-ago quarter’s 76 cents. Gulfport fetched $58.45 per barrel of oil during the quarter, up from the year-ago figure of $53.71. Overall, Gulfport realized $3.45 per thousand cubic feet equivalent in the quarter vis a vis $2.80 in the year-ago period.

Expenses

Total expenses in the quarter under review amounted to $261.3 million, reflecting an increase of 16.2% from $224.8 million in the prior-year period. This is mainly attributed to higher production taxes, depreciation and midstream gathering/processing charges incurred in the reported quarter.

Depreciation costs rose 22% to $133.8 million and midstream gathering/processing expenses scaled up 4% from the prior-year quarter to $75.6 million.

Capex, Balance Sheet & Stock Buyback

In the reported quarter, Gulfport spent $63.5 million on drilling and completion (D&C). Full-year D&C capex amounted to $695.4 million. As of Dec 31, 2018, the natural gas-weighted energy explorer had approximately $52.3 million in cash and cash equivalents. Gulfport had a long-term debt of $2,086.7 million, representing a debt-to-capitalization ratio of around 38.5%.

With the company having completed its $200 million worth share buyback program in 2018, Gulfport authorized the repurchase of an additional $400 million of shares of the company’s common stock over the next two years.

2019 Guidance Retained

Gulfport reiterated its 2019 guidance that was unveiled in January. The upstream player expects 2019 capex in the band of $565-$600 million. The company projects 2019 production within 1,360-1,400 MMcfe/d. Moreover, the company expects free cash flow to exceed $100 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted 6.77% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Gulfport Energy has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Gulfport Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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