Cosi Continues to Trail

Cosi Inc. (COSI - Snapshot Report) reported a loss of 3 cents per share in the third quarter of 2011, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of break-even. The reported figure was also a penny wider than the year-ago loss per share.

Total revenue, which comprises company-operated restaurant sales and franchise fees and royalties, declined 6.6% year over year to $25.3 million due to the sale of 6 company-owned restaurants to a franchisee in the quarter as well as the decrease in company-owned comps.

A decline in traffic, primarily in dinner daypart as well as in lunch daypart in mid-Atlantic market, resulted in a 6.8% decrease in company-operated restaurant sales to $24.5 million. However, franchise fees and royalty revenues increased 11.0% year over year to $0.9 million.

System-wide comparable store sales slid 3.0% from the year-ago quarter. The comps decline was steeper sequentially. Cosi has been witnessing negative comps since the last quarter after four consecutive quarters of growth. Comps at both company-owned restaurants and franchised restaurants were down 3.0% year over year.

Apart from lower traffic, company-owned business at the New York market and its surroundings in which Cosi outlets are concentrated was hurt by 70 basis points (bps) due the effects of Hurricane Irene in late August.

Based in Deerfield, Illinois, the company’s restaurant operating loss deteriorated to $1.5 million from $1.1 million during the quarter. The loss widened due to a 130-bp rise in cost of food and beverage and a 50-bp jump in restaurant operating expenses, partially compensated by a 20-bp decline in labor and related benefits, as a percentage of restaurant sales.

Store Update

During the quarter, the company closed one company-owned restaurant. At the end of the third quarter, the company had 138 restaurants, out of which 80 are company-owned and 58 franchised.

Financial Position

Cosi ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $8.1 million and shareholder’s equity of $7.7 million. Additionally, the company has no debt apart from lease obligations.

Our Take

At the beginning of the ongoing fourth quarter, Cosi launched an enhanced catering menu. Cosi is also planning to implement online catering access, which is slated for launch in 2012. Although, Cosi is taking a set of initiatives to turn around, we prefer to remain on the sidelines until those measures translate into better numbers.

At the current level, we are not optimistic on Cosi as the company repeatedly missed the Zacks Consensus estimates. Cosi, which competes with companies like Kona Grill Inc. (KONA - Snapshot Report), currently retains a Zacks #4 Rank, which translates into a short-term Sell rating. We are also maintaining our long-term Underperform recommendation on the stock.

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