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Jakks (JAKK) Up 15.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Jakks Pacific (JAKK - Free Report) . Shares have added about 15.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Jakks due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

JAKKS Pacific Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Miss

JAKKS Pacific reported mixed third-quarter 2019 financial numbers, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same. Following the release, the company’s shares increased almost 7% on Nov 7.

The company reported adjusted earnings of 76 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 28 cents by 171.4%. Also, the figure increased from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of 38 cents by 100%.

Revenues during the quarter totaled $280.1 million, which missed the consensus mark of $280.5 million by 0.1%. However, the top line increased 18.3% year over year. The uptick can be attributed to strong sales of Disney Frozen 2, Disguise and Nintendo products.
Operating Highlights

In the reported quarter, gross margin was 28.9%, up 170 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter’s level. Adjusted EBITDA increased 64% to $44.1 million from $27 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

Balance Sheet

As of Sep 30, 2019, cash and cash equivalents amounted to $71 million compared with $53.3 million as of Dec 31, 2018. Inventory increased to $65.3 million from $53.9 million at the end of 2018. Long-term debt, as of Sep 30, totaled $170.8 million, up from $139.8 million at the end of 2018.

Guidance

The company expects sales to grow nearly 5% in 2019.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Fresh estimates followed a downward path over the past two months. The consensus estimate has shifted -142.86% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Jakks has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Jakks has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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