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Industry Outlook

The U.S. publishing industry has long been grappling with sinking advertising revenue, which got worse with the global economic downturn. At the core of the industry’s problems is declining print readership as more readers choose to get free online news, thereby making the print-advertising model increasingly irrelevant.

Changing consumer preferences and the advent of new and innovative technologies have been altering the way news is read and offered. Readers now have more choices to collect and read articles and news through devices such as netbooks or other hand-held devices. These have been weighing upon the print newspaper industry, as advertisers now have other low-cost avenues through which they can reach their target audience more effectively. An alternative and a stable source of revenue is the need of the time to salvage the dwindling print newspaper industry.

Let’s have a look at what is happening in the publishing industry and how newspaper companies are adapting to the changing scenarios to keep themselves alive in the race for survival.

Circulation Falling Prey to Internet

Newspapers have fared far worse than magazines, as web-based news options have gotten the upper hand in recent years. The two-decade-long erosion in newspaper circulation reinforced the decline in advertising revenue. Circulation has also fallen prey to budget cuts, with newspaper companies reducing the number of print pages and newsroom staff to combat the downturn.

Despite the fall in newspaper circulation, some companies are reporting improved revenue from circulation due to the increase in subscription and newsstand prices. On the flip side, while the increase in prices for print editions is generating more circulation revenue, it is also resulting in subscriber losses due to the shift in preference for free online content.

Newspaper Advertising Revenue Still in Red

Advertising volumes remain under pressure as advertisers keep shying away from making upfront commitments, in an economy which is still fraught with risks.

According to data released by the Newspaper Association of America, total advertising revenue for U.S. newspapers slipped 8.9% in the third quarter of 2011 (July to September) to $5.56 billion, after falling 6.9% in the previous quarter, marking the 21st consecutive quarter of decline. The last time the industry witnessed an increase in revenue was in the second quarter of 2006, when advertising revenue grew 1.1%.

Print advertising declined 10.8% to $4.82 billion, after declining 8.9%, 9.5%, 6.8% and 7.1% in the previous four quarters, respectively. National advertising sales declined 13.4% to $823.3 million, retail dropped 9% to $2.80 billion and classified plunged 12.9% to $1.20 billion during the third quarter.

Print advertising revenue at The New York Times Company ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/nyt]NYT[/url]) dropped 7.8% in the fourth quarter of 2011. At Gannett Co. ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/gci]GCI[/url]), publishing advertising revenue dropped 7.1% in the fourth quarter.

Print advertising revenue tumbled 6.5% at The McClatchy Company ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/mni]MNI[/url]) during the fourth quarter of 2011 and 20% at The Washington Post Company ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/wpo]WPO[/url]) in the third quarter of 2011. Publishing advertising revenue dropped approximately 12.1% at Journal Communications, Inc. ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/jrn]JRN[/url]) during the third quarter. Print advertising revenue at The E.W. Scripps Company ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/ssp]SSP[/url]) fell 7.9% in the third quarter.

Efforts to Mitigate Losses

In an effort to offset declining revenue and shrinking market share, publishers are scrambling to slash costs. This has compelled many newspaper companies to undertake cost-cutting measures, such as trimming headcount, pay cuts, furloughs, suspension of dividends, voluntary retirement programs and closure of printing facilities.

Newspaper companies have now been remodeling and restructuring themselves to better align with the growing need of marketers, targeting younger people, affluent households and other demographic groups with multiple web and print publications. The publishing companies are adapting to the changing face of the multi-platform media universe, which currently includes Internet, mobile, tablet, social media networks and outdoor video advertising in its portfolio.

Online Advertising Gaining Traction

Advertisers are migrating to the Internet, driven by increasing online readership and lower online advertising prices compared to print. Consumers are now spending more time online, and are searching news articles on the Internet. Newspaper companies, who gauged this trend, have been trying to revamp themselves by increasing their digital applications. Digital advertising revenue remains a sole performer in the newspaper industry.

McClatchy witnessed 1.9% and 0.7% rises in digital advertising revenue at retail and classified advertising categories, respectively. Digital advertising revenue at the News Media Group, one of the segments of The New York Times Company, rose 5.3%.

The data released by the Newspaper Association of America suggested that online advertising revenue climbed 6.2% in third quarter of 2011 to $732.6 million from $689.8 in the prior-year quarter, reflecting a seventh consecutive quarter of growth. Advertisers are migrating to the Internet driven by increasing online readership and lower online advertising prices compared to print. However, growth in online advertising slowed from the 8% registered in the second quarter.

According to data provided by eMarketer, U.S. online advertising spending increased 23% to $32.03 billion in 2011, and is projected to soar an additional 23.3% to $39.5 billion in 2012, which is higher than the combined spending on print newspapers and magazines. Print advertising spending is forecasted to decline from $36 billion in 2011 to $33.8 billion in 2012.

The study done by eMarketer further reveals that U.S. digital advertising revenue for newspapers will increase 11.4% to $3.7 billion, following a rise of 8.3% to $3.3 billion in 2011. However, it cautioned that print advertising revenue may dip further by 6% to $19.4 billion in 2012, after dropping 9.3% to $20.7 billion in 2011.

Pay As You Access

”To read further please subscribe” is the new mantra that newspaper companies are fast adopting. To curb shrinking advertising revenue and improve market shares battered by the recent economic downturn, some of the publishing companies are now considering charging readers for online content.

We believe that this would mark an end to the free usage of online content. Despite hiccups in the economy, the online subscription based model still promises a guaranteed revenue generation avenue.

Rupert Murdoch, the Chief Executive Officer of News Corporation ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/nwsa]NWSA[/url]), has long been pushing for the online subscription model for all general news websites. But newspaper companies have been reluctant to go this route, as they fear losing readership and, in turn, advertisers.

News Corporation has taken a leap towards an online subscription-based model for general news content. News International, a subsidiary of News Corporation, began charging readers for online content for The Times of London and Sunday Times of London, effective June 2010.

Business newspapers, such as The Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal (owned by News Corporation) have long been following an online pay model. Levying access charges on readers for online access to general news content was the first for any news publication.

Another media giant, The New York Times Company, on March 28, 2011 launched a pricing system for NYTimes.com similar to that of the Financial Times' metered system, whereby after browsing a certain number of free articles, readers will be asked to subscribe for complete access to its articles on phones, tablet computers and the Internet.

The New York Times Company has fixed monthly charges of $15 for accessing more than 20 articles on its website and a smart-phone application; $20 for unlimited online access and on Apple Inc.'s ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/aapl]AAPL[/url]) iPad tablet computer application; and $35 for online and smart-phones.

The company also indicated that the users of NYTimes.com will be able to read 20 articles per month for free. However, readers visiting The New York Times Company’s website via blog links or social-media sites such as Facebook or Twitter will be able to access unlimited number of articles. But traffic reaching the company’s website through search engines such as Google Inc. ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/goog]GOOG[/url]), Microsoft Corporation's ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/msft]MSFT[/url]) Bing and Yahoo Inc. ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/yhoo]YHOO[/url]) will be able to view five articles per day before being asked for a subscription.

We believe the success of the pay model depends on the accessibility of new articles across the web. Potential customers will be reluctant to pay if the content is available free of cost elsewhere. However, The New York Times Company notified that the number of paid digital subscribers reached 390,000 at the end of the fourth quarter.

The company also launched a pay and read model for BostonGlobe.com for a weekly subscription of $3.99. The number of paid digital subscribers reached 16,000 at the end of the quarter.

OPPORTUNITIES

Despite the tough times faced by the publishing industry, there are a number of defensive names in the group that can hold their ground. Companies are radically changing their business models to get in line with industry trends.

The New York Times Company ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/nyt]NYT[/url]) is diversifying its business by adding new revenue streams to make it less susceptible to economic uncertainties. The company is also streamlining its cost structure, strengthening its balance sheet and rebalancing its portfolio.

The company is witnessing strength across digital advertising in News Media Group. The company’s fourth-quarter 2011 earnings of 45 cents a share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 42 cents. The quarter highlights favorable response to the digital subscription packages, increase in digital advertising revenue at News Media Group, improvement in circulation revenue and fall in attrition rate as subscribers to the New York Times print version are able to access content or articles online as well as on all applications of The Times for no additional charges.

The New York Times Company currently holds a Zacks #2 Rank that translates into a short-term Buy rating. McClatchy Company ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/mni]MNI[/url]) also holds a Zacks #2 Rank.

WEAKNESSES

The newspaper industry continues its struggle with plummeting advertising revenue amidst the economic headwinds. Although murmurs about advertisers returning to the market are gaining ground as the economy recovers, the positive effects have yet to be realized.

The current economic upheaval is taking a toll on publishing companies, and Gannett Co. ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/gci]GCI[/url]) is no exception. After dropping 8.5% in the third quarter of 2011, publishing advertising revenue fell 7.1% to $670.7 million from the year-ago quarter. Tough economic environment along with softness in advertising demand in the U.S. and U.K. impacted the results. The company’s high dependence on advertising revenue, a derivative of the health of the economy, remains a potential threat.

However, the company is repositioning itself for improvement in print and digital media through a new subscription based model, whereby subscribers will be able to access the paid content through websites, mobile and tablet, and will have the preference of choosing the frequency of home delivery of print editions. On the other hand, the company will limit the number of free articles that a non-subscriber can access. Gannett currently holds a Zacks #3 Rank that translates into a short-term Hold rating. News Corporation ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/nwsa]NWSA[/url]) and The Washington Post Company ([url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/wpo]WPO[/url]) also hold Zacks #3 Ranks.

Closing Remark

The newspaper companies are transforming their business models to better position themselves in a multi-platform media universe. Although the U.S. economy is witnessing a sluggish recovery in the advertising environment, we believe 2012 will not likely mark the resurrection of the publishing industry. However, it is expected to fare better than 2011.

Overall, the newspaper companies are expected to have steadier budgets, fewer layoffs, increased focus on web and local content, improved subscription and concentration on profitable circulation in 2012.

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