This is our short term rating system that serves as a timeliness indicator for stocks over the next 1 to 3 months. How good is it? See rankings and related performance below.
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Let's firstreview how we got here,from S&P 1,100 only5 months ago to 3.5 year highs above 1,375...
1) Investors priced-in global recession, if not Euro-contagion
2) Shell-shocked by the daily Euro-mess news flow and slow-growth worries,many investors waited on the sidelines for the smoke to clear
3) The economy that most underestimatedhas beenfull ofpositive surprises
4) We have only just begun to build a wall of worry for the market to climb andportfolio managers (myself included) are itching for a pullback to buy
5)The S&P should logically take its time to get decisively throughthe 1,350-70 head & shoulders top of last year, but a surge to 1,400 would be just the unexpected outcome to fool the most investors
My conclusion is that it will take an unexpected event to be the catalyst to give us a 5-8% pullback. It will have to be surprising and panic-inspiring. And it will be a buying opportunity because no one willrecognize itat the time.
In 2010, it was Deepwater Horizon and the "flash crash,"with a little early Euro-panic to spice things up. In 2011, it was the horrible Japanese earthquake.Then came the first half GDP of sub-1%, with a littledebt-ceiling debacle for fun.
What would it take to shock this market now? Middle East military action? Seems nearly priced-in if you ask me. What else?
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