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We have downgraded our recommendation on ADTRAN Inc. (ADTN - Analyst Report) to Underperform from Neutral given the company’s lower projection in terms of revenue, net income and earnings.
In the near term, ADTRAN is expected to deliver lackluster sales given the weak spending pattern of customers that will in turn weigh on its overall revenue. Lower carrier infrastructure spending by Tier 1 carriers like Verizon and AT&T resulted in reduced revenue in the Optical Access in the fourth quarter and we expect this trend to continue in the short run.
Additionally, the company’s traditional products, mainly HDSL will continue declining with increased market traction in Ethernet and fiber-based platforms. As a result, the company now expects revenue in the range of $130–$135 million. Previously, ADTRAN had projected stable revenue of $175.3 million. Net income is expected to be affected by higher professional services-related revenue, carrying lower margins.
Further, the company’s expansion plans with acquisition expenses and increased overseas activities may keep its margin performance under pressure and thereby, impact its earnings.
Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range of 22 cents to 25 cents. The company’s earnings would be adversely affected by 2 cents per share related to the acquisition of Bluesocket Inc. and the planned acquisition of the NSN Broadband Access business. In addition, stock-based compensation is expected to constrain earnings by 3 cents in the first quarter. Including these charges, earnings would be in the range of 17-20 cents per share.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate is 20 cents per share, representing a decline of 61.54% from the year-ago quarter.
Further, customer concentration is the major and foremost risk for the company. Customers such as AT&T Inc. (T - Analyst Report), Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ - Analyst Report), and CenturyLink Inc. (CTL - Analyst Report) generate a major portion of the company’s revenue. As long as these giant and independent companies represent a substantial percentage of the company’s sales, any reduction or loss in business from these customers could negatively impact revenue growth, thereby restricting its profitability.
Currently, the stock retains the Zacks #5 Rank (Strong Sell) for the short term (1–3 months).
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