Denbury Outshines on Record Output

Denbury Resources Inc. (DNR - Analyst Report) has reported first-quarter 2012 adjusted earnings of 41 cents per share (excluding one-time items), beating our expectation of 38 cents. The quarterly results were also well above the year-earlier adjusted earnings of 26 cents, attributable to record output from tertiary oil and the Bakken output.

Total revenue jumped 35% to $645.1 million from the year-ago level of $514.2 million and comfortably surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $610 million.

Operational Performance

During the quarter, production averaged 71,532 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d), up 12% year over year, attributable to the increased output in Bakken and tertiary. Oil production averaged 66,857 barrels (up 14% from the year-ago level) and natural gas averaged 28,052 thousand cubic feet (down 9%), on a daily basis.

Oil price realization (including the impact of hedges) averaged $101.16 per barrel in the quarter, showing an improvement of 9% year over year, while gas prices decreased 8% to $6.59 per Mcf. On an oil equivalent basis, the overall price realization was $97.14 per barrel, up 10% from the year-earlier level of $88.70 per barrel.

Financials

Cash flow from operations was $291.7 million in the reported quarter versus $124.8 million in the year-ago quarter. Oil & natural gas capital investments were $302.8 million, up from the year-earlier level of $220.1 million. Denbury's 2012 capital expenditure budget has been hiked by $150 million to $1.5 billion. Of the $150 million increase, $80 million is allocated for Bakken development while the remainder will be expended toward tertiary floods.

Cash balance as of March 31, 2012was $77.4 million and long-term debt was $2,496.4 million, representing a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 33.6% (unchanged from the preceding quarter).

Outlook

With its own in-house CO2 reserve base, Denbury enjoys a significant competitive advantage in acquiring and exploiting mature oil reservoirs. Tertiary operations remain the company's principal focus with particular emphasis on the Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountains and Bakken Shale holdings.

Denbury reduced its 2012 production guidance to 68,625–73,625 Boe/d from its earlier estimate of 70,250–75,250 Boe/d. The company’s tertiary production target remains unchanged in the 33,000–36,000 Boe/d range, while the Bakken production guidance has been increased to the range of 14,350–16,350 Boe/d from 12,750–14,750 Boe/d previously.

However, we see limited upside potential for Denbury shares due to its sensitivity to oil price volatility, along with drilling results, costs, geo-political risks and project timing delays. Additionally, competition from Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD - Analyst Report) and Newfield Exploration Co. (NFX - Analyst Report) is also a cause for concern.

We currently reiterate our long-term Neutral rating on Denbury shares. The company carries a Zacks #2 Rank (short-term Buy rating).