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Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB - Analyst Report) is slated to announce its second quarter results on Tuesday, July 24, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second quarter is $1.56 per share, 14.7% above the year-ago earnings of $1.36.
First Quarter Highlights
Biogen reported first quarter earnings per share of $1.39, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.44 and the year-ago earnings of $1.42. Results were affected by higher costs. First quarter 2012 revenues, which were in-line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, increased 7% to $1.3 billion.
First quarter Tysabri revenues came in at $286 million, up 14% from the prior-year period. Global in-market net revenues of Tysabri, which is partnered with Elan Corp. (ELN - Snapshot Report), came in at $399 million (up 14%) in the first quarter of 2012. Tysabri global revenues consisted of US revenues of $201 million and Rest of the World (ROW) revenues of $198 million.
Meanwhile, Biogen’s lead MS product Avonex posted first quarter revenues of $662 million (up 3%). However, unfavorable distribution channel dynamics impacted Avonex’s global unit demand by 4%.
Agreement of Estimate Revisions
Of the 6 analysts following the stock, 2 analysts revised their second quarter estimate upward, while none of the analysts have trimmed their estimates in the last 30 days. There were no revisions during the last 7 days. We believe that Tysabri will continue its strong performance in the second quarter and this has led to the upward estimate revisions by analysts.
For 2012, there has been a downward revision with 1 analyst reducing estimates in the last 30 days. None of the analysts revised their 2012 estimates in the last 7 days.
Magnitude of Estimate Revisions
The magnitude of revisions is modest over the last 30 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second quarter of 2012 increased a penny to $1.56 per share in the last 30 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2012 declined by a cent to $6.15 per share in the past 30 days. Biogen expects earnings to exceed $6.15 per share in 2012.
In the last 7 days, there was no change in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second quarter of 2012 and full year 2012.
Earnings Surprise
Biogen’s has delivered a positive earnings surprise in two of the last four quarters. The company recorded a maximum of 3.97% in the third quarter of 2011. In the first quarter of 2012, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 3.47%. On average, the earnings surprise stood at 0.09%.
Recommendation
We currently have a Neutral recommendation on Biogen, which carries a Zacks #2 Rank (short-term Buy rating). Key products, Avonex and Tysabri, should continue contributing significantly to revenues. BG-12 should help drive long-term growth.
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