What are the Odds of a Recession in 2013?
by Steve ReitmeisterAugust 10, 2012 | Comments : 18 Recommended this article: (1)
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Economists have a terrible track record of predicting recessions. In fact, there has never been a recession started where more than 50% of the economists agree that one is coming.
So perhaps best to use the same kind of math one uses to convert celsius temperatures to farenheit (double it, then add 30 ;-)
Right now the WSJ panel of economists predicts that the US economy will actually pick up speed to +2.4% growth in 2013. (Have to wonder how many of them are computing any amount for the Fiscal Cliff which estimates say could trim 0.7% to 2.3% off GDP).
Simply I suspect that these guys all have funny stuff in their pipes as GDP will likely come in more like 0 to +1% given the current decelleration + fiscal cliff possibilities. Given that I will say 30-40% odds of recession in 2013. Meaning greater likelihood of Muddle Through economy being on course for a 4th straight year.
Now share your outlook for the economy in 2013.
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