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Real Time Insight

This week, investors get supplied with new IMF global GDP growth data.  I am quite interested to see this data.  I think it will give us a refresh on the global growth situation.  These are the first global growth numbers to come out after the latest Draghi moves to buy debt and the announcement of Bernanke’s QE3.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook comes out on Tuesday, October 9.

The IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report comes out on Wednesday, Oct 10.

Here are IMF GDP data I pulled out of last quarter’s reports, done in July 2012.

All data will be updated:

Advanced Economies     2011     +1.6%        2012     +1.4%          2013   +1.9%

United States                    2011     +1.7%        2012     +2.0%          2013   +2.3%

Euro Area                          2011      +1.5%        2012     (-0.3%)        2013   +0.7%

China                                 2011      +9.2%        2012     +8.0%          2013   +8.5%

Open this nice IMF tool to view the long-term global GDP growth picture…

For its part, the World Bank reported Monday, Oct. 8th that China should expand +7.7% in 2012 and +8.1% in 2013.  For China, this weaker World Bank GDP data argues for a reduction in the coming IMF GDP growth numbers.

My debate questions?

(1) Is the U.S. economy still going to show stronger real GDP growth in 2013?  Why or why not?

(2) Does U.S. GDP growth push new macro support on China and Europe?

(3) Can the U.S. economy lead the major parts of the world economy in 2013?


(4) Did (U.S. and non-U.S.) equity markets already price in the new data?

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