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Earnings Preview: Louisiana-Pacific

LPX PCH

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Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX - Snapshot Report) is set to unveil its third quarter 2012 results on November 6, 2012, before the market opens. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third quarter earnings is pegged at 25 cents on revenues of $475 million.

Second Quarter 2012 Recap

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 2 cents per share from continuing operations in the second quarter of 2012, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 4 cents. Results, however, improved from the prior-year quarter loss of 24 cents.

Net sales in the quarter improved 18% to $428 million, owing to higher volumes at Oriental Strand Board (OSB) and Siding segments and price increases at the OSB segment. Revenues also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $419 million attributable to strong performance of the OSB and Siding segments.

Agreement of Estimate Revisions    

Of the 13 estimates for the third quarter of 2012, 1 was revised upward in the last 7 days. Over the last 30 days, 7 out of the 13 estimates moved upwards.

Of the 12 estimates for full year 2012, 2 were revised upward in the last 7 days. Over the last 30 days, 7 out of 12 estimates were revised upward for the full year 2012.
 
The upward movement of the estimates has been driven by price appreciation in the OSB segment in September 2012.
 
Magnitude of Estimate Revisions

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter of fiscal 2012 increased by a penny to 25 cents over the last 7 days. The estimate has moved up 7 cents from 18 cents over the last 30 days.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2012 earnings has increased by 3 cents to 30 cents over the last 7 days. The estimate increased by 11 cents from 19 cents over the last 30 days.

Surprise History

A peer of Potlatch Corporation (PCH - Snapshot Report), Louisiana-Pacific has missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three out of the last four quarters. The company results beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the first quarter of 2012. The surprise average is (16.69) %.

Our Recommendation

We appreciate the growth in price and volume, exhibited by the OSB segment and expect segment volumes to grow further in 2012 and 2013. We also like the strong liquidity position of the company

We currently have an Outperform recommendation on Louisiana-Pacific. The stock carries a Zacks #1 Rank (short-term ‘Strong Buy’ rating).
 

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