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Real Time Insight

Jobless claims improved significantly from the previous week as the effects of Hurricane Sandy appear to have worn off. Initial claims declined by 25K to 370K, which was better than expected. It appears that we have nestled back into the lukewarm 360-390K range once again.

You can see the negative impact Sandy has had on jobless claims in the chart below from Calculated Risk Blog. You can also see the similar impact Hurricane Katrina had on jobless claims in early September 2005. That turned out to be a temporary spike, and I'd expect that to be the case here too.

On Wednesday, ADP reported that businesses added 118,000 jobs in November. And on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly Employment Situation Report. The data is likely to be heavily skewed by Hurricane Sandy, but the current consensus that I've gathered is around 90,000 jobs added in November.

Do you expect Friday's jobs report to come in OVER or UNDER the consensus?

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