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Mark Vickery

Earnings Preview: VeriFone Systems

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VeriFone Systems, Inc. (PAY - Analyst Report) is expected to report fourth quarter and full-year 2012 results on Dec 13, 2012.

For the fourth quarter, VeriFone expects to report net revenue between $495 million and $500 million. Excluding stock-based compensation, net income per diluted share is projected between 75 cents and 77 cents. 
 
In the third quarter of 2012, VeriFone posted a net income of $37.7 million or 34 cents per share compared with $14.5 million or 3 cents per share in the second quarter of fiscal 2012 and $26.4 million or 28 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. 
 
Excluding one-time charges but including stock-based compensation expense, net income came in at 64 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 61 cents. 
 
The company has been consistently beating expectations. On average, VeriFone has exceeded Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.17% in the last four quarters. 
 
For fiscal 2012 (including 10 months of Point revenues), VeriFone expects to report net revenue between $1.893 billion and $1.898 billion, down from the previous guidance of $1.900 billion - $1.925 billion, primarily due to exchange rate volatility and reduced sales from Latin America.
 
Excluding stock-based compensation, net income per share is projected between $2.73 and $2.75, up from the earlier projection of $2.60 - $2.66.
 
For fiscal 2013, revenues are estimated between $2.05 billion and $2.10 billion. Excluding stock-based compensation, net income per share is projected between $3.25 and $3.30.
 
VeriFone continues to impress on the back of strategic acquisitions and growing high margin services mix in total revenue. This high-margin services business is being propelled by new offerings, such as London taxi, Secure PumpPay and mobile payments growth. The recent acquisitions of Hypercom and Point will strengthen the company’s foothold in Europe along with generating significant synergies. 
 
However, organic growth remains a matter of concern. Competition continues to be stiff from the likes of NCR Corp. (NCR - Analyst Report), which recently acquired Retalix Ltd. for approximately $650 million.
 
Earnings estimates have been more or less static in the last 90 days with no movement in either side. Organic growth also remains a matter of concern. Hence, we maintain our Neutral recommendation ahead of the fourth quarter results. 
 
Our Neutral recommendation is supported by a Zacks #3 Rank, which translates into a short-term rating of Hold. 

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