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Real Time Insight

As we mark off the last few days of 2012, investors - and even some politicians - are starting to lose hope that a fiscal cliff deal will be reached by the end of the year.

When do you think we will see a fiscal cliff deal?

A. Before January 1, 2013
B. Sometime in early January
C. Mid-to-late January
D. February or later
E. There will be no deal

My vote is 'C'. So we will officially go over the cliff, but it will be relatively brief. As everyone knows, taxes will be significantly higher starting on January 1. So any deal after that will technically be considered a tax cut, and that should garner more support from Republicans (i.e., no pledges will be broken).

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