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Is the Secular Bear Market Over?January 18, 2013 | Comments : 22 Recommended this article: (0)
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Most investors are not familiar with the concept of secular bull and bear markets. But understanding it will likely be the key to your investment success in the future.
The expression "Secular Market" is a fancy way of saying the long term trend. As you will clearly see from the chart below there have been 15-20 year Secular Bull Markets followed by equally long Secular Bears. (Note that I agree with other experts that 1929 to 1947 was one continuous Secular Bear and not necessarily broken up as shown below).
Their are two distinguishing marks of the Secular Bears. The first being that the market takes 15-20 years to get back on top of the previous highs. And second, during those bearish times, PE's get compressed down to a level which makes the following generation so profitable as multiples expand.
So is the market truly ready to end this Secular Bear phase leading to great prosperity for investors over the next 15-20 years?
Or is there another round or two of contraction ahead before the next Secular Bull emerges?
Share your views in the comments below.
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