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Why Is Agnico (AEM) Up 9.1% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM - Free Report) . Shares have added about 9.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Agnico due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Agnico Eagle's Q1 Earnings Top Estimates, Revenues Up Y/Y

Agnico Eagle posted a net loss of $21.6 million or 9 cents per share in first-quarter 2020 against net income of $37 million or 16 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 23 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 18 cents.

The company generated revenues of $671.9 million, up 26.2% year over year.

Operational Highlights

Payable gold production rose 3.3% year over year to 411,366 ounces in the reported quarter. The figure includes pre-commercial production at Canadian Malartic from the Barnat deposit. Total cash costs per ounce for gold were $836, up 34.2% year over year.

All-in sustaining costs (AISC) were $1,099 per ounce, up 31.5% from year over year.

Per the company, production costs and total cash costs per ounce increased in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis due to higher costs at the Meliadine mine and Meadowbank Complex.

Financial Position

Agnico Eagle ended the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1,255.3 million, up nearly 7-times year over year. Long-term debt was $2,351.9 million, up 36.6% year over year.

Total cash from operating activities amounted to $163.4 million in the quarter, up 9.9% year over year.

Outlook

Agnico Eagle revised its production guidance for 2020.

Gold production for the year is now projected in the range of 1.63-1.73 million ounces, down from 1.875 million ounces stated earlier. The projection was lowered primarily due to the impact of coronavirus-related shutdowns.

The company expects total cash costs per ounce in the range of $740-$790 compared with $725-$775 expected earlier. AISC is now expected to be $1,025-$1,075 per ounce compared with $975-$1,025 per ounce expected earlier. Year-over-year increase in costs is primarily due to considerable reduction in production caused by the temporary suspension of the company’s operating activities. This is expected to be partly offset by favorable foreign currency translations.
 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review flatlined during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 10.48% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Agnico has an average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Agnico has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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