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Real Time Insight

Today's ADP Employment report estimated private payrolls expanded by 158,000. But this was well short of the consensus for 205,000.

This is also in stark contrast to last month's ADP estimate of 237,000. (The government officially reported 246,000 shortly thereafter.)

At the moment, the BLS is expected to report 200,000 new private payroll jobs were created in March. We will see if today's disappointing ADP number pushes estimates down ahead of Friday.

Either way, with new uncertainty surrounding the upcoming report, the chance for an outsize surprise (up or down) has grown.

Many consider the Employment Situation report to be one of the most influential reports for the market. So all eyes will be on this number on Friday (8:30 am EST).

What's your guess? Do we beat expectations on Friday or miss?

Perhaps, more importantly, is what will the market's reaction be? And are you positioning yourself any differently in light of today?

 

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