Back to top

Real Time Insight

Since its Friday, I wanted to keep things a little light and do a little “head check” to see where everyone thinks we are in the emotional cycle of the marketplace (and maybe where you might think we are headed).

Psychology is a large part of investing; understanding how the masses are “thinking” is essential to determining a thesis for a stock. As we see time and time again it’s often manias and panics with little or no fundamental basis or even a complete disconnect from fundamentals which have spawned some of the largest volatility in stocks and other assets.

An example might be how an explosion in the Middle East might trigger panic selling in an unrelated tech stock or back in the 1990’s when anything with a dot-com at the end of its name was bought regardless of their business health or growth.  

Then there is the macro sentiment that many use to determine just how the market reacts to news and data. 

Today we are in a bit of a odd sentiment in my opinion.  Stocks have rallied 15% YTD and are up almost 30% since their lows right around this time last year, yet earnings growth is less than 3% and revenue growth is a negative 1%.  In addition to the fact there isn’t any fantastically positive data to justify gains; stocks seem to brush off most of the poor economic data sets.

I think it’s at least safe to say that market’s are in a “positive” state of mind (let me know if you disagree).

The point here is not to argue whether the market is fairly priced, cheap or overbought; I’m just curious as to where you all think we are in the cycle using the chart below (credit to its original creator who I am unable to identify).

To put your opinion in perspective, let’s use a one year time frame or so, because this data can be extrapolated to trends within a day’s time or over a 20 year period.

Given the state of things, the data I am observing and the opinions of investors that I encounter, I think are right around the “Thrill” area of the curve, closely approaching Euphoria.

Where do you all see the market right now? 

Explain your answers if you want, but if you just want to spit out a level, that’s fine as well!

Happy Friday!

Just Released: 5 Stocks to Double

Today, you are invited to download a free Special Report from Zacks Investment Research. It reveals five moves that could gain +100% and more in the next 12 months:

One is a "boring" business delivering blistering growth. Another is a red-hot oil and gas producer set to surge on a drilling breakthrough. Still another, an online payment provider, ignited a 53% sales explosion during the past year.

Close This Panel X

Please login to or register to post a comment.

New to Zacks?

Start Here

Zacks Investment Research


Are you a new Zacks Member or a visitor to

Top Zacks Features

My Portfolio Tracker

Is it Time to Sell?

One of the most important steps you can take today is to set up your portfolio tracker on Once you do, you'll be notified of major events affecting your stocks and/or funds with daily email alerts.

More Zacks Resources

Zacks Rank Home - Evaluate your stocks and use the Zacks Rank to eliminate the losers and keep the winners.

Mutual Fund Rank Home - Evaluate your funds with the Mutual Fund Rank for both your personal and retirement funds.

Stock/Mutual Fund Screening - Find better stocks and mutual funds. The ones most likely to beat the market and provide a positive return.

My Portfolio - Track your Portfolio and find out where your stocks/mutual funds stack up with the Zacks Rank.

Zacks #1 Rank Top Movers for Zacks #1 Rank Top Movers

Company Symbol Price %Chg
UTD THERAPE… UTHR 117.83 +28.51%
TRIQUINT SE… TQNT 20.67 +6.52%
RF MICRO DE… RFMD 12.47 +6.04%
VASCO DATA… VDSI 14.77 +4.68%
BANCO DO BR… BDORY 15.53 +3.95%