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Will Ralph Lauren Beat Earnings in 4Q?

RL ZQK PVH

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N.Y. -based Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL - Analyst Report) – a designer, marketer and distributor of lifestyle products – is likely to beat expectations while reporting its fourth-quarter fiscal 2013 results on May 23.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Ralph Lauren may beat the earnings because it has the right combination of two key components – Positive Earnings ESP (Read: Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Method) and a Zacks Rank #3.

Zacks ESP: Ralph Lauren currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.08%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate stands at $1.34, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.30.

Zacks Rank #3(Hold): Stocks with Zacks Rank #1, #2 and #3 have significantly higher chances of beating the earnings. The sell rated stocks (#4 and #5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.

The combination of Ralph Lauren’s Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and Earnings ESP of +3.08% makes us confident regarding a positive earnings beat by the company on May 23.

What is Driving the Better-than-Expected Earnings?

We believe that Ralph Lauren’s initiatives to capitalize on opportunities in emerging markets along with its focus on core business activities augur well for the future operating performance. Going forward, Ralph Lauren’s growth story looks compelling as we believe that the company’s sustained focus on expanding higher growth businesses, such as accessories category, along with strategically expanding its global operations will boost its top and bottom lines. Moreover, Ralph Lauren leverages its globally renowned brands and premium positioning to bolster its well-established business in the specialty retailing sector.

Looking at the earnings surprise history, the company has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimates in the past several quarters. Ralph Lauren has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing 4 quarters with an average surprise of 11.4%, and most recently topping by 8.6% in the third quarter of fiscal 2013.

Other Stocks to Consider

Ralph Lauren is not the only firm we are looking up to this earnings season. The following companies are also likely to beat the earnings in the to-be-reported quarter:

Quicksilver Inc. (ZQK - Snapshot Report) with an Earnings ESP of +25.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

PVH Corp. (PVH - Snapshot Report) with an Earnings ESP of +0.73% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Fifth & Pacific Companies Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +10.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

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