Back to top

Image: Bigstock

OPEC Supply Cuts to Boost Oil & Gas International E&P Industry

Read MoreHide Full Article

The Zacks Oil and Gas - International E&P industry consists of companies based outside the United States and Canada focused on exploration and production (E&P) of oil and natural gas. These firms are engaged in finding hydrocarbon reservoirs, drilling oil and gas wells, and producing and selling these materials to be refined later into products such as gasoline.

Let’s take a look at the industry’s three major themes:

  • Bullish supply and demand fundamentals are pushing Brent oil prices toward $70 a barrel. The international crude benchmark recently rallied to the highest in almost five months, underpinned mainly by production cuts from the OPEC-led group of exporters, and drop in supply from Venezuela and Iran. The so-called OPEC+ deal (an alliance of OPEC, Russia and other non-member countries) is withholding output by around 1.2 million barrels per day until the end of June. U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and Iran also continue to tighten the commodity’s fundamentals. Signs of stable demand (contrary to previous expectations of slowing consumption), optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and the looming expiry of waivers granted to eight Iranian crude importers are other positives in the oil story. These themes not only put a floor beneath prices for the time being, but also are likely to aid the continuation of commodity’s recent gains, eventually to around $75 per barrel.

 

  • Meanwhile, natural gas prices are struggling to break above the $3 per MMBtu mark with the onset of the injection season and continually growing production. The fundamentals of natural gas consumption continue to be favorable on growing demand by electrical utilities, booming exports to Mexico, large-scale liquefied gas export facilities and higher usage from industrial projects. However, record high production in the United States and expectations for explosive growth through 2020 means that supply will keep pace with demand. Therefore, prices are likely to trade sideways but for weather-driven movements. Currently trading around $2.65 per MMBtu, the fuel’s consumption is likely to decline in the near term with the end of the traditional withdrawal season in March.

 

  • Over the past few years, energy producers worked tirelessly to cut costs to a bare minimum and look for innovative ways to churn out more oil and gas. And they managed to do just that by improving drilling techniques and extracting favorable terms from the beleaguered service producers. Moreover, driven by operational efficiencies, most E&P operators have been able to reduce unit costs and live within their cash flows. All of these factors, together with production growth and capital discipline have resulted in surging free cash flows. With cash generation expected to remain robust even at relatively low oil prices, there is strong potential for greater return of capital to shareholders through dividend growth and stock buybacks.

 

Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Positive Outlook

The Zacks Oil and Gas - International E&P is a 12-stock group within the broader Zacks Oil - Energy sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #65, which places it in the top 25% of more than 250 Zacks industries.

The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates bullish near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperforms the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

The industry’s position in the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of positive earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts have reposed faith in this group’s earnings growth potential. In the past year, the industry’s earnings estimate for 2019 surged more than 100%.

Before we present a few stocks that you may want to consider, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock-market performance and valuation picture.

Industry Lags Sector and S&P 500

The Zacks Oil and Gas - International E&P industry has lagged the broader Zacks Oil - Energy Sector as well as the Zacks S&P 500 composite over the past year.

The industry has declined 5.6% over this period compared to the S&P 500’s gain of 8.8% and broader sector’s decrease of 1.4%.

One-Year Price Performance

 

 

Industry’s Current Valuation 

Since oil and gas companies are debt-laden, it makes sense to value them based on the EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value/ Earnings before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization) ratio. This is because the valuation metric takes into account not just equity but also the level of debt. For capital-intensive companies, EV/EBITDA is a better valuation metric because it is not influenced by changing capital structures and ignores the effect of noncash expenses.

On the basis of the trailing 12-month enterprise value-to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio, the industry is currently trading at 15.63X, higher than the S&P 500’s 10.96X. It is also well above the sector’s trailing-12-month EV/EBITDA of 5.30X.

Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 71.98X, as low as 7.01X, with a median of 15.99X.

Trailing 12-Month Enterprise Value-to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) Ratio

 

 

 

 

Bottom Line

On Christmas Eve, Brent futures fell to a 16-month low of around $50 per barrel but have since recovered almost 40% of that value. The rebound has been primarily driven by the OPEC+ group restraining production. Importantly, the oil market appears well supported, especially through steady demand from Asian consumers like China and India. Bullish signals, including a possible extension of OPEC’s production cuts through the end of this year, are expected to back prices over the near-to-medium term.

Natural gas futures, meanwhile, are likely to remain sedate on surging supplies amid expectations of tepid demand.

We are presenting one stock with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and two with Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) that are well positioned to grow. There is also a stock with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) that investors may currently retain in their portfolio.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Kunlun Energy Company Limited (KLYCY - Free Report) : Kunlun Energy, operating through its subsidiaries, is an oil explorer and producer, and a natural gas distributor in China. Over 30 days, the Hong Kong-headquartered company – carrying a Zacks Rank #1 – has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2019 increase 6.3% to $1.19 per share.

 

Price and Consensus: KLYCY

 

 

EnQuest PLC (ENQUF - Free Report) : Based in London, EnQuest is an energy explorer with operations in the UK North Sea and Malaysia. Over 30 days, the Zacks Rank #2 company has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2019 increase 40% to 14 cents per share.

 

Price and Consensus: ENQUF

 

 

Tullow Oil plc (TUWOY - Free Report) : This London-based company conducts oil and gas upstream operations in Africa. Tullow Oil, which carries a Zacks Rank #2, has an expected earnings growth of 200% for 2019.

 

Price and Consensus: TUWOY

 

 

Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET - Free Report) : Based in Calgary, Alberta, Vermilion Energy has producing properties in Europe, North America and Australia. The company, having a Zacks Rank #3, has an expected earnings growth of 35.1% for 2019.

 

Price and Consensus: VET

 

 

Today's Best Stocks from Zacks

Would you like to see the updated picks from our best market-beating strategies? From 2017 through 2018, while the S&P 500 gained +15.8%, five of our screens returned +38.0%, +61.3%, +61.6%, +68.1%, and +98.3%.

This outperformance has not just been a recent phenomenon. From 2000 – 2018, while the S&P averaged +4.8% per year, our top strategies averaged up to +56.2% per year.

See their latest picks free >>




In-Depth Zacks Research for the Tickers Above


Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:


Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) - free report >>

Tullow Oil PLC (TUWOY) - free report >>

KUNLUN EGY ADR (KLYCY) - free report >>

ENQUEST PLC LON (ENQUF) - free report >>

More from Zacks Industry Outlook

You May Like