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Earnings Preview

The big banks have given us a reassuring start to the Q2 reporting cycle. If this trend continues next week when a broad and representative cross section of corporate America is on deck to come out with quarterly results, then we will have a tangible reason for the major indexes to build on their impressive post-Brexit run.  

J.P. Morgan stayed true to its well-earned reputation for operational excellence, with solid gains in both consumer banking as well as in its capital markets platform. In consumer banking, they achieved impressive gains in both deposits as well loans, which helped it partly offset the negative impact from continued net-interest margin pressures. On the investment banking side, while the advisory business was largely tepid as expected, the trading platform, particularly on the fixed income side, impressed with its resilience. The capital markets momentum was visible in the Citigroup (C - Analyst Report) group results as well, which has read-throughs for Bank of America (BAC - Analyst Report) on Monday and Goldman Sachs (GS - Analyst Report) on Tuesday. The Wells Fargo (WFC - Analyst Report) report was a bit of a letdown as it simply didn’t show the level of consumer banking gains that many were looking for following the J.P. Morgan report.

We should keep in mind however that the reassuring piece of these bank results is not that they are great, but rather that they could have been a lot worse. After all, we got into this reporting cycle for the banks with estimates steadily coming down in the wake of lower treasury yields and Brexit-centric uncertainties. More than better than expected, bank results have been ‘better than feared’, which is nevertheless a positive. The earnings power of this key sector continues to remain shackled by low treasury yields, which refuse to follow the stock market’s lead despite growing signs of domestic economic momentum. The interest rates question is of course very complicated, as it not only reflects the market’s evolving Fed view, but also the widespread incidence of negative yields in many other developed markets.

The Q2 Earnings Scorecard (as of July 15th)

We now have Q2 results from 36 S&P 500 members that combined account for 10.1% of the index’s total market capitalization. Total earnings for these 36 companies are down -3.9% from the same period last year on -0.1% lower revenues, with 66.7% beating EPS estimates and 41.7% coming ahead of top-line expectations.

The focus lately has been on results from the big banks, with the brokers and regional players on the docket for releases next week. For the Finance sector as whole, we now have Q2 results from 25.7% of the sector’s total market cap in the S&P 500 Index. Total earnings for these Finance sector companies (primarily big banks) are down -5.4% from the same period last year on -0.2% lower revenues, with 57.1% beating EPS estimates and 42.9% beating revenue estimates.

The table below provides the current scorecard

This is weak performance for 36 S&P 500 members as well as for the banks relative to other historical periods, as the comparison charts below show

While the unfavorable growth comparisons aren’t a surprise given all the challenges, but if the proportion of companies beating Q2 estimates continues to lag below other recent reporting cycles, then it would be hard to argue that companies were faced with low estimates.

It will be interesting to see if positive surprises continue to lag historical periods. We will see how the aggregate picture evolves following this week’s busy reporting docket, with almost 300 companies reporting results, including 92 S&P members.

Expectations for the Quarter As a Whole

Looking at Q2 as a whole, combining the actual results from 36 index members with estimates for the still-to-come 464 companies, total S&P 500 earnings are expected to be down -5.4% on -0.5% lower revenues, with growth in negative territory for 9 of the 16 Zacks sectors. The Q2 growth pace has ‘improved’ as the banks have come out with improved results, but the quarter is still on track to be in the negative for the 5th quarter in a row.

As has been the pattern in other recent periods, the Energy sector remains the biggest drag on the aggregate growth picture, with total earnings for the sector expected to be down -77.1% on -25.7% lower revenues. Excluding the Energy sector, earnings for the rest of the index would be down -2.1%.

The table below shows the summary picture for Q2 contrasted with what was actually achieved in the preceding period.

While Energy stands out for its very tough comparisons, there is not much positive growth coming from the other major sectors either. The Finance and Technology sectors, the two biggest earnings contributors in the S&P 500 index, are also expected to see earnings decline in Q2 from the year-earlier levels.

For the Finance sector, total Q2 earnings are expected to be down -3.3% on -0.5% lower revenues, which will follow -6.9% decline in the sector’s earnings in the preceding quarter.

The Technology sector, total earnings are expected to be down -6.2% on +2.7% higher revenues, which would follow the sector’s -4.5% earnings decline on +0.4% higher revenues in Q1. The big culprit for the Tech sector’s weak showing this quarter (as well as last one) is Apple (AAPL - Analyst Report) , whose June quarter earnings are expected to be down -28.7% on -15.3% lower revenues from the same period last year. Excluding Apple, the Tech sector’s Q2 earnings would be down only -0.6% (Apple alone brings in roughly a fifth of the Tech sector’s total earnings).

On the positive side, Q2 earnings are expected be up at Autos (up +8.3%), Construction (+9%), Conglomerates (+11.5%), and Utilities (+20.6%). The Utilities and Conglomerate sectors’ strong growth numbers are solely due to easy comparisons at AES Corp (AES - Analyst Report) and General Electric (GE - Analyst Report) , respectively.

Expectations Beyond Q2

The chart below shows current quarterly earnings growth expectations for the index in 2016 Q2 and the following four quarters contrasted with actual declines in the preceding four quarters. As you can see, Q2 is on track to be the 5th quarter in row of earnings declines and estimates of Q3 growth starting to go deeper into negative territory as well.

The only meaningful positive earnings growth this year is expected to come from the last quarter of the year, which is then expected to continue into 2017 when earnings for the S&P 500 index are expected to be up in double-digits. We will see if those estimates will hold up as we reach the last quarter of the year. But given what we have seen over the last few quarters, the odds don’t look that favorable.

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Note: For a complete analysis of 2016 Q2 estimates, please check out weekly Earnings Trends report.

Here is a list of the 299 companies reporting this week, including 92 S&P 500 members.

Company Ticker Current Qtr Year-Ago Qtr Last EPS Surprise % Report Day Time
HUNT (JB) TRANSJBHT0.970.883.53%MondayBTO
BANK OF AMER CPBAC0.340.45-4.55%MondayBTO
HASBRO INCHAS0.390.3358.33%MondayBTO
CAL-MAINE FOODSCALM-0.20.9547.78%MondayBTO
LENNOX INTL INCLII2.351.8411.11%MondayBTO
NETFLIX INCNFLX0.020.06100.00%MondayAMC
INTL BUS MACHIBM2.873.8412.44%MondayAMC
YAHOO! INCYHOO0.020.03150.00%MondayAMC
EMC CORP -MASSEMC0.330.34-4.76%MondayAMC
BROWN & BROWNBRO0.440.434.76%MondayAMC
VMWARE INC-AVMW0.690.69-1.72%MondayAMC
BBCN BANCORPBBCN0.310.290.00%MondayAMC
WILSHIRE BCPWIBC0.20.2-15.00%MondayAMC
RAMBUS INCRMBS0.10.1122.22%MondayAMC
IDEX CORPIEX0.930.899.88%MondayAMC
SANDVIK ABSDVKYN/A0.17-110.00%MondayN/A
REGIONS FINL CPRF0.20.25.26%TuesdayBTO
COMERICA INCCMA0.680.73-19.05%TuesdayBTO
PROLOGIS INCPLD0.590.523.39%TuesdayBTO
GRAINGER W WGWW3.193.2711.19%TuesdayBTO
KANSAS CITY SOUKSU1.041.036.19%TuesdayBTO
GOLDMAN SACHSGS3.014.754.28%TuesdayBTO
PHILIP MORRISPM1.211.21-11.71%TuesdayBTO
GENUINE PARTSGPC1.31.281.94%TuesdayBTO
JOHNSON & JOHNSJNJ1.671.712.44%TuesdayBTO
MGIC INVSTMT CPMTG0.20.28-17.39%TuesdayBTO
ERICSSON LM ADRERIC0.140.18-23.08%TuesdayBTO
SYNOVUS FINL CPSNV0.470.42-2.27%TuesdayBTO
TD AMERITRADEAMTD0.380.360.00%TuesdayBTO
HANMI FINL CPHAFC0.420.449.52%TuesdayBTO
NOVARTIS AG-ADRNVS1.181.26-0.85%TuesdayBTO
TILE SHOP HLDGSTTS0.130.0927.27%TuesdayBTO
NEOGEN CORPNEOG0.260.25-12.00%TuesdayBTO
BELDEN INCBDC1.261.215.21%TuesdayBTO
UNITED CONT HLDUAL2.533.315.13%TuesdayAMC
CINTAS CORPCTAS1.020.8610.53%TuesdayAMC
MICROSOFT CORPMSFT0.580.62-1.59%TuesdayAMC
DISCOVER FIN SVDFS1.421.333.85%TuesdayAMC
ELECTR ARTS INCEA-0.140.0126.67%TuesdayAMC
NAVIENT CORPNAVI0.450.44.88%TuesdayAMC
INVUITY INCIVTY-0.81-3.2-32.35%TuesdayAMC
PINNACLE FIN PTPNFP0.740.64-1.39%TuesdayAMC
ALLIED WORLD ASAWH0.440.2710.17%TuesdayAMC
RENASANT CORPRNST0.570.480.00%TuesdayAMC
WIPRO LTD-ADRWIT0.140.14-12.50%TuesdayAMC
FULTON FINLFULT0.220.214.76%TuesdayAMC
HELIX EGY SOLUTHLX-0.13-0.037.14%TuesdayAMC
WINTRUST FINLWTFC0.860.8525.00%TuesdayAMC
WESBANCO INCWSBC0.560.581.69%TuesdayAMC
EXPONENT INCEXPO0.410.4317.65%TuesdayAMC
RLI CORPRLI0.630.773.85%TuesdayAMC
UTD COMM FIN CPUCFC0.10.08-30.00%TuesdayAMC
LEGACY TX FINLLTXB0.450.447.50%TuesdayAMC
SOUTHWEST BC-OKOKSB0.240.22-58.33%TuesdayAMC
FIRST MIDWST BKFMBI0.30.29-3.57%TuesdayAMC
Tegna IncTGNA0.490.659.76TuesdayN/A
NORTHERN TRUSTNTRS1.051.016.32%WednesdayBTO
HALLIBURTON COHAL-0.180.4475.00%WednesdayBTO
ABBOTT LABSABT0.530.525.13%WednesdayBTO
ILL TOOL WORKSITW1.41.32.38%WednesdayBTO
M&T BANK CORPMTB2.082.010.54%WednesdayBTO
MORGAN STANLEYMS0.60.7919.57%WednesdayBTO
AMPHENOL CORP-AAPH0.630.585.36%WednesdayBTO
TE CONNECT-LTDTEL1.040.91.12%WednesdayBTO
ST JUDE MEDICALSTJ1.061.032.27%WednesdayBTO
WEBSTER FINL CPWBS0.520.55-3.77%WednesdayBTO
POLARIS INDUSPII1.081.492.90%WednesdayBTO
TUPPERWARE BRNDTUP1.111.215.81%WednesdayBTO
BANKUNITED INCBKU0.510.43-1.92%WednesdayBTO
ASML HOLDING NVASML0.870.9610.87%WednesdayBTO
ASANKO GOLD INCAKG-0.09-0.01-100.00%WednesdayBTO
CDN PAC RLWYCP1.561.99-0.55%WednesdayBTO
WABCO HOLDINGSWBC1.41.42.24%WednesdayBTO
PAC PREMIER BCPPPBI0.420.367.89%WednesdayBTO
JAKKS PACIFICJAKK-0.3-0.3-7.45%WednesdayBTO
MEDIDATA SOLUTNMDSO0.090.06133.33%WednesdayBTO
NATUS MEDICALBABY0.360.3413.33%WednesdayBTO
STEPAN COSCL1.170.9126.47%WednesdayBTO
TRACTOR SUPPLYTSCO1.161.128.70%WednesdayAMC
FMC TECH INCFTI0.30.52-29.03%WednesdayAMC
AMER EXPRESS COAXP1.931.426.62%WednesdayAMC
SL GREEN REALTYSLG3.181.6512.12%WednesdayAMC
MATTEL INCMAT-0.060.01-62.50%WednesdayAMC
NEWMONT MININGNEM0.270.2661.90%WednesdayAMC
UTD RENTALS INCURI1.851.9517.65%WednesdayAMC
F5 NETWORKS INCFFIV1.381.32-2.36%WednesdayAMC
EBAY INCEBAY0.360.635.13%WednesdayAMC
INTEL CORPINTC0.530.5510.20%WednesdayAMC
QUALCOMM INCQCOM0.830.868.54%WednesdayAMC
PTC INCPTC0.20.42-56.00%WednesdayAMC
COHEN&STRS INCCNS0.490.45-6.67%WednesdayAMC
LANDSTAR SYSTEMLSTR0.820.922.99%WednesdayAMC
EAST WEST BCEWBC0.690.6810.45%WednesdayAMC
PACKAGING CORPPKG1.181.189.90%WednesdayAMC
CROWN HLDGS INCCCK1.11.039.52%WednesdayAMC
EASTGROUP PPTYSEGP0.990.92-2.15%WednesdayAMC
HEXCEL CORPHXL0.640.635.36%WednesdayAMC
UMPQUA HLDGS CPUMPQ0.290.310.00%WednesdayAMC
CATHAY GENL BCPCATY0.430.569.62%WednesdayAMC
RAYMOND JAS FINRJF0.880.9116.88%WednesdayAMC
SAP AG ADRSAP0.780.814.29%WednesdayAMC
LASALLE HTL PRPLHO0.960.911.36%WednesdayAMC
TEXAS CAP BCSHSTCBI0.760.76-26.87%WednesdayAMC
BRANDYWINE RTBDN0.310.323.33%WednesdayAMC
SELECT COMFORTSCSS0.010.2135.00%WednesdayAMC
HANCOCK HLDG COHBHC0.440.5180.00%WednesdayAMC
CORE LABS NVCLB0.350.820.00%WednesdayAMC
CVB FINLCVBF0.250.25-12.00%WednesdayAMC
FNF GROUPFNF0.650.65-8.33%WednesdayAMC
IMAX CORPIMAX0.130.3455.56%WednesdayAMC
MELLANOX TECHMLNX0.550.47-8.70%WednesdayAMC
PREFERRED BANKPFBC0.590.550.00%WednesdayAMC
DEL TACO RSTRNTTACO0.12-0.54-11.11%WednesdayAMC
TRUEBLUE INCTBI0.430.454.00%WednesdayAMC
COMMNTY BK SYSCBU0.560.580.00%WednesdayAMC
PLEXUS CORPPLXS0.760.695.77%WednesdayAMC
CUSTOMERS BANCPCUBI0.590.523.64%WednesdayAMC
EAGLE BCP INCEGBN0.670.616.25%WednesdayAMC
ESSENDANT INCESND0.820.82-2.17%WednesdayAMC
FIRST CT BANCRPFBNK0.220.190.00%WednesdayAMC
GREAT SOUTH BCPGSBC0.80.85-9.09%WednesdayAMC
SIMMONS FIRST ASFNC0.810.76-1.28%WednesdayAMC
SLM CORPSLM0.110.216.67%WednesdayAMC
WOODWARD INCWWD0.790.66-4.41%WednesdayAMC
DATAWATCH CORPDWCH-0.28-0.3117.14%WednesdayAMC
NVE CORPNVEC0.540.781.89%WednesdayAMC
TRISTATE CP HLDTSC0.220.25.00%WednesdayAMC
BLACK KNGHT FINBKFS0.280.24-4.00%WednesdayAMC
MB FINANCL INCMBFI0.560.533.85%WednesdayAMC
BOSTON PRIV FINBPFH0.190.223.53%WednesdayAMC
KAISER ALUMINUMKALU1.41.2713.53%WednesdayAMC
UNIVL FST PRODSUFPI1.441.289.20%WednesdayAMC
BADGER METERBMI0.670.5525.00%WednesdayAMC
GRACO INCGGG0.991.05-6.67%WednesdayN/A
TELIA CO ABTLSNYN/A0.180.00%WednesdayN/A
Kinder Morgan, IncKMI0.150.15-36.84WednesdayN/A
ALASKA AIR GRPALK2.071.762.11%ThursdayBTO
CITIZENS FIN GPCFG0.430.47.89%ThursdayBTO
BANK OF NY MELLBK0.750.778.82%ThursdayBTO
TRAVELERS COSTRV2.132.52-9.34%ThursdayBTO
SOUTHWEST AIRLUV1.221.034.76%ThursdayBTO
INTERPUBLIC GRPIPG0.330.29100.00%ThursdayBTO
BIOGEN INCBIIB4.694.226.92%ThursdayBTO
SCHLUMBERGER LTSLB0.220.88-2.44%ThursdayBTO
D R HORTON INCDHI0.660.610.64%ThursdayBTO
UNION PAC CORPUNP1.171.386.42%ThursdayBTO
BB&T CORPBBT0.650.697.81%ThursdayBTO
PPG INDS INCPPG1.841.670.77%ThursdayBTO
DOVER CORPDOV0.860.97-11.86%ThursdayBTO
GENERAL MOTORSGM1.471.2924.75%ThursdayBTO
JOHNSON CONTROLJCI1.030.914.88%ThursdayBTO
SHERWIN WILLIAMSHW4.183.7711.04%ThursdayBTO
PULTE GROUP ONCPHM0.330.2326.32%ThursdayBTO
SNAP-ON INCSNA2.222.033.85%ThursdayBTO
QUEST DIAGNOSTCDGX1.311.250.00%ThursdayBTO
NUCOR CORPNUE0.70.39-18.52%ThursdayBTO
ALLIANCE DATAADS3.323.084.61%ThursdayBTO
BLACKSTONE GRPBX0.450.43-29.55%ThursdayBTO
DST SYSTEMSDST1.441.3910.27%ThursdayBTO
ADEPTUS HEALTHADPT0.480.3810.81%ThursdayBTO
MANPOWER INC WIMAN1.521.335.38%ThursdayBTO
DANA HOLDING CPDAN0.470.48-20.93%ThursdayBTO
ABB LTD-ADRABB0.260.264.55%ThursdayBTO
CAPITAL BNK FINCBF0.380.30.00%ThursdayBTO
ROGERS COMM CLBRCI0.640.63-12.50%ThursdayBTO
STEWART INFO SVSTC0.860.72-16.00%ThursdayBTO
DUNKIN BRANDSDNKN0.560.52.33%ThursdayBTO
DOMINOS PIZZADPZ0.930.81-8.25%ThursdayBTO
PRECISION DRILLPDS-0.19-0.0853.85%ThursdayBTO
SONOCO PRODUCTSSON0.680.688.33%ThursdayBTO
ENCANA CORPECA-0.08-0.2-36.36%ThursdayBTO
DEL FRISCOS RSTDFRG0.190.169.52%ThursdayBTO
GATX CORPGATX1.211.0333.88%ThursdayBTO
VALMONT INDSVMI1.741.6118.25%ThursdayBTO
FNB CORPFNB0.230.220.00%ThursdayBTO
HERITAGE FIN CPHFWA0.310.290.00%ThursdayBTO
KCG HOLDINGSKCG0.350.1886.36%ThursdayBTO
ALTRA INDUS MOTAIMC0.390.4318.75%ThursdayBTO
POOL CORPPOOL1.911.7852.00%ThursdayBTO
S&T BANCORP INCSTBA0.50.52-13.21%ThursdayBTO
TRINITY BIOTECHTRIB0.060.07-62.50%ThursdayBTO
ULTRATECH STEPUTEK0.090.0677.78%ThursdayBTO
MARRIOT VAC WWVAC1.030.91-11.22%ThursdayBTO
AMER RIVER BSHAMRB0.20.180.00%ThursdayBTO
ALTISOURCE PORTASPS1.572.6215.75%ThursdayBTO
SANDY SPRINGSASR0.450.420.00%ThursdayBTO
YADKIN FINL CPYDKN0.40.38-2.50%ThursdayBTO
BENCHMARK ELETRBHE0.330.42-23.53%ThursdayBTO
CAMTEK LIMITEDCAMT0.020.02-100.00%ThursdayBTO
STORA ENSO -ADRSEOAY0.20.20.00%ThursdayBTO
RELIANCE STEELRS1.311.2117.05%ThursdayBTO
FIRST AMER FINLFAF0.810.8313.89%ThursdayBTO
LAWSON PRODUCTSLAWS0.180.331100.00%ThursdayBTO
SCHOLASTIC CORPSCHL0.950.9382.86%ThursdayBTO
MCCLATCHY CO-AMNI-0.54028.57%ThursdayBTO
CHIPOTLE MEXICNCMG1.084.4516.98%ThursdayAMC
STRYKER CORPSYK1.361.23.33%ThursdayAMC
VISA INC-AV0.670.743.03%ThursdayAMC
STARBUCKS CORPSBUX0.490.420.00%ThursdayAMC
CAPITAL ONE FINCOF1.871.78-2.63%ThursdayAMC
E TRADE FINL CPETFC0.390.2530.30%ThursdayAMC
CROWN CASTLECCI1.11.038.26%ThursdayAMC
SOUTHWESTRN ENESWN-0.11-0.0260.00%ThursdayAMC
AT&T INCT0.720.694.35%ThursdayAMC
BASIC EGY SVCSBAS-1.41-1.138.33%ThursdayAMC
MAXIM INTG PDTSMXIM0.480.430.00%ThursdayAMC
SWIFT TRANSPORTSWFT0.310.3713.64%ThursdayAMC
OCEANEERING INTOII0.280.76-11.76%ThursdayAMC
SVB FINL GPSIVB1.691.66-10.06%ThursdayAMC
ASSOC BANC CORPASB0.30.31-3.57%ThursdayAMC
FORWARD AIR CRPFWRD0.580.510.00%ThursdayAMC
PANDORA MEDIAP-0.3-0.0813.95%ThursdayAMC
TRINITY INDS INTRN0.451.33-7.58%ThursdayAMC
SKECHERS USA-ASKX0.510.5218.87%ThursdayAMC
WESTERN ALLIANCWAL0.610.497.14%ThursdayAMC
ADV MICRO DEVAMD-0.11-0.196.67%ThursdayAMC
ATHENAHEALTH INATHN0.160.06181.25%ThursdayAMC
8X8 INCEGHT-0.010.01-50.00%ThursdayAMC
GLACIER BANCORPGBCI0.410.39-2.56%ThursdayAMC
HAWAIIAN HLDGSHA1.140.616.67%ThursdayAMC
ABAXIS INCABAX0.330.3112.50%ThursdayAMC
FIRST FIN BC-OHFFBC0.340.31-3.03%ThursdayAMC
POLYCOM INCPLCM0.130.160.00%ThursdayAMC
BOSTON BEER INCSAM1.972.19-44.79%ThursdayAMC
SILICON MOTIONSIMO0.590.5412.73%ThursdayAMC
BRYN MAWR BK CPBMTC0.510.54.26%ThursdayAMC
COBIZ FINL INCCOBZ0.180.170.00%ThursdayAMC
CEMENTOS PACASMCPAC0.120.13-42.86%ThursdayAMC
FCB FINL HLDGSFCB0.550.441.92%ThursdayAMC
MERCHANTS BANCSMBVT0.570.49-8.33%ThursdayAMC
PROOFPOINT INCPFPT-0.61-0.4710.00%ThursdayAMC
SENSIENT TECHSXT0.790.80.00%ThursdayAMC
CELESTICA INCCLS0.180.2142.86%ThursdayAMC
CLEARWATER PAPRCLW1.170.7920.22%ThursdayAMC
INDEP BK MASSINDB0.760.684.35%ThursdayAMC
NATIONAL BK HLDNBHC0.21-0.040.00%ThursdayAMC
TESSCO TECH INCTESS0.270.2-225.00%ThursdayAMC
UNITIL CORPUTL0.130.12-14.29%ThursdayAMC
ZHONE TECH INCZHNE0-0.01-233.33%ThursdayAMC
HNI CORPHNI0.610.5372.22%ThursdayAMC
PEOPLES UTD FINPBCT0.220.210.00%ThursdayN/A
PACIFIC CONTLPCBK0.290.260.00%ThursdayN/A
DASSAULT SY-ADRDASTY0.580.592.08%ThursdayN/A
AMER AIRLINESAAL1.552.625.93%FridayBTO
V F CORPVFC0.340.43.39%FridayBTO
SUNTRUST BKSSTI0.870.8910.53%FridayBTO
STANLEY B&D INCSWK1.711.5410.92%FridayBTO
GENL ELECTRICGE0.460.310.00%FridayBTO
TEXTRON INCTXT0.620.63.77%FridayBTO
MOODYS CORPMCO1.251.28-13.08%FridayBTO
SYNCHRONY FINSYF0.550.651.45%FridayBTO
TCF FINL CORPTCB0.290.298.33%FridayBTO
WATSCO INCWSO2.031.85-2.74%FridayBTO
AUTOLIV INCALV1.751.6210.67%FridayBTO
OFG BANCORPOFG0.25-0.13-4.00%FridayBTO
GENTEX CORPGNTX0.290.250.00%FridayBTO
SOUTH STATE CPSSB1.111.090.97%FridayBTO