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Fossil is still running on all cylinders despite the challenging economic environment. Can Fossil buck the dreary outlook for retail?

Its watch sales, especially in Europe, continue to be strong. The company has surprised on earnings 4 consecutive quarters by an average of 38.46%. Fossil is trading at 10.9x forward earnings.

Company Description

Fossil, Inc. (FOSL - Free Report) designs fashion accessories, including handbags, belts, jewelry, sunglasses and watches under its own brand, Fossil. It also produces watches through licensing agreements with Burberry, DKNY, Marc by Marc Jacobs and Michael Kors. Watches are its bread-and-butter product.

Fossil, a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy), distributes its products to department stores and specialty retails stores in over 90 countries worldwide. It sells its products in the U.S. through 113 company-owned stores consisting of 53 retail stores and 60 outlet stores.

Internationally, Fossil's products are sold through 23 company-owned retail stores, in kiosks in certain markets and on cruise ships.

The company continues to expand its licensing agreements. In August it announced an agreement with Donna Karan Studio, LLC to develop a line of women’s and men’s fashion jewelry under the DKNY label. Sales for the line were expected to begin in the third quarter.

Sales Rise 15.2% in the Second Quarter

On Aug 12, Fossil reported second quarter earnings and easily beat Wall Street estimates by 38.46%. Net income soared 71.3% to $25.1 million, or 36 cents per share, compared to $14.7 million, or 21 cents per share in the year ago period.

Sales jumped 15.2% to $353.2 million from $306.5 million in 2007. Sales increased in all of the company's operating segments but international sales were particularly strong. International wholesale sales rose 20.4%. Even accounting for the currency impact, sales rose 9.5%.

Europe was hot, rising 16.8%. International sales were driven by volume growth in FOSSIL and licensed brand watches.

In the U.S., sales increased 1.5% and were also driven by a 2.3% increase in domestic watch sales. Accessories also grew 0.5%. The hottest watch brands were Michele, Michael Kors, and Emporio Armani.

Fossil Provides Third Quarter Guidance

Fossil continues to be bullish about the third quarter and the full year. Net sales are expected to be in the mid-teens range for the second half of fiscal 2008.

The company forecast third-quarter earnings per share of 53 cents compared to 43 cents in the 2007 quarter. For the full year, the company guided to the range of $2.27 to $2.30 per share compared to earnings of $1.75 in fiscal 2007.

Consenus Estimates Rise

Following the company's guidance, covering analysts adjusted earnings estimates for the third quarter and the full year. Third quarter consensus is now 53 cents, exactly the guidance provided by the company. For the full year, estimates are up 7 cents to $2.28, in the middle of the company's guidance range.

Value Fundamentals

Fossil has a forward P/E of 10.99. Its price-to-book is 2.54. The company has a stellar average five year return on equity (ROE) of 16.66%.

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