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Monday was an interesting session as bulls and bears fought all day long over 5 measly points. Yes, they just moved back and forth in a narrow band of 2050 2055.
In the end the bears won that fight with stocks heading down to 2048 in the final minutes. That is not such a big deal in isolation. So here is the bigger picture:
• 5th straight close under 50 day moving average
• Russell 2000 took a shot to break above the 200 day moving average. Now it is under for three straight weeks
• Transportation average also tried to get back to 200 day. It sputtered and failed like the Russell 2000.
Also of interest is that short term Treasury rates continue to go higher as odds of a Fed rate hike increase. However, this is the 3rd straight session the 10 year has gone lower. A flattening of the yield curve is never a welcome sign for stocks as it typically says the future is not as bright as the present.
With a market this volatile, it is possible for all of this to change quite quickly. However, if rates continue to flatten, then don?t be surprised if stocks head further south.
Best,
Steve Reitmeister
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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