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The Federal Reserve once again whispered "We're warning you... we might do it." And the market yawned. I'm not just talking about the stock market. Over at the largest futures exchange in the world, CME Group -- where I worked and traded for more than half of my career in markets -- the Fed Funds contract actually moved to imply less chance of a rate hike in September.
The current probability of a hike in six weeks is now only 18%. The odds are stronger for the December meeting, but still moved further to favor the no-hike camp with a 53.5% probability.
The Fed has a real communication problem here: they'd like to hike again, but the market is so unprepared for it they would have to do some real shouting from the rooftops to get the message across.
The Fundamentals That Really Matter
Since that Fed-watching game is about as exciting these days as an Alcoa conference call, let's keep our focus on the best cause-effect driver in the stock market: earnings. The good news is that while total earnings for the 208 S&P index members who've reported results are down 4.7% from last year, 73% have beaten EPS estimates and 52% beat on revenues.
The best way to find, track, and invest in those earnings winners, without getting overwhelmed, is to have a research-driven, logic-based and systematic approach to the thousands of companies profiled in the Zacks Rank. Kevin Matras just put together a note on an exciting new way to do that...
Using a secret formulation of 12 fundamental and technical indicators, our computer-driven "Black Box" strategy recommends 10 high-potential stocks every Monday morning with mathematical precision.
Over a 10-year testing period, which included just about every market condition, the strategy more than doubled the S&P. In recent weeks, Black Box stocks have made gains of +19.04%, +20.94%, even +35.23%. As the market continues to surge to new highs, we expect tremendous performance in the months to come.
Amazon is slated to report earnings on Thursday. What can investors expect from the company as it looks to continue its incredible run sparked in part by great growth in its cloud computing division? Read More »
Gold Mining Stocks have been hot, but they have run into some turbulence as of late. What does earnings season have in store for Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), and New Gold (NGD)? Read More »
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