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Stocks closed mostly lower on Monday after a sharply higher week last week.
Trade took center stage as the latest round of tariffs kicked in on China yesterday.
And a report over the weekend that China canceled trade negotiations that were scheduled for this week only exacerbated the tension surrounding trade between the two largest economies in the world.
Markets have been shrugging off trade tensions between the two countries for months. And I expect that to continue, save for days like yesterday. Because as I've mentioned before, analysts are not expecting the tariffs to have much of an impact on our earnings or GDP. And also because the back and forth with tariffs isn't the end game -- it's a tool each party is using as leverage to advance trade talks that will ultimately result in a fairer deal for all.
Of course, things can change. But at the moment, that's the current state of where things are and the prevailing wisdom surrounding it all.
In other news, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.18, up from last month's 0.13. The report noted that the production component drove most of the gains, with the sales, orders & inventories component contributing as well.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey slipped a bit from 30.9 to 28.1. Interestingly, analysts put a positive spin on the slight easing, specifically citing a lessening in capacity stress as a positive given the previous 'risk of overheating' in that region.
Today we'll get a look at retail sales via the Redbook report, home sales with the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, manufacturing thru the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, consumer confidence via the Consumer Confidence report, and a look at the confidence of professional investors and their buying and selling thru the State Street Investor Confidence Index.
Should be a busy day.
See you tomorrow,
Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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