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Profit from the Pros By Kevin Matras Executive Vice President
Earnings Season Picking Up, But Stocks Awaiting News On Stimulus
Stocks closed lower yesterday, giving up early gains.
Uncertainty over stimulus continues to move the market. Every positive comment seems to push it higher while each negative comment seems to push it lower. But the Speaker and the Treasury Secretary continue to paint a picture of hope. Even the White House Chief of Staff said that "good progress" was made between the two, but added they "still have a ways to go."
If a deal has any chance of getting passed before the election, it will likely need to get done by week's end so it can get voted on by the Senate.
But it could be a big boost for the market. Especially if the proposed $1,200 direct payments are included in the bill. And since 70% of GDP is tied to consumer spending, that money will quickly make its way into the economy.
In other news, MBA Mortgage Applications pulled back -0.6% (-2.0% for purchases and +0.2% for refi's). But with mortgage demand hitting an 11-year high just a short while ago, and housing permits hitting a 13-year high, this space looks strong.
The Beige Book showed the economy grew at a "slight to modest" pace during the early fall. It noted how manufacturing, residential housing, and banking industries showed steady growth. But consumer spending and commercial real estate lagged.
Unfortunately, commercial real estate is likely to lag for a while.
But as mentioned above, the stimulus package with its direct unemployment payments should immediately help with consumer spending.
Today we'll get a look at Existing Home Sales, Weekly Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators, and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index.
In the meantime, earnings season is picking up steam. And since stocks typically go up during earnings season, that's a positive catalyst for the market.
So is the unprecedented growth forecast for the remainder of the year (35% Q3 GDP, and double-digits again for Q4), along with 2021 GDP expected to grow at the fastest pace in 38 years!
This has been the fastest economic rebound in history. And it looks like it's just getting started.
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