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Southwest (LUV) Likely Q2 Earnings Picture Amid Coronavirus Woes

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Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2020 results on Jul 23, before market open.

The impact of coronavirus is expected to have been greater on the carrier’s second-quarter performance than on its first, as air-travel demand was significantly below year-ago levels in the entire April-June period, while the first-quarter impact was limited mostly to March.

Let’s delve deeper.

Factors at Play

Southwest is anticipated to have suffered substantial loss of passenger revenues, accounting for approximately 90% of the top line, in the second quarter due to coronavirus-induced weak travel demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter passenger revenues indicates an 85.4% drop from the year-ago reported figure. Additionally, the consensus mark for total revenues suggests an 86.6% plunge from revenues reported in second-quarter 2019.

With travel demand way below year-ago levels, the airline reduced capacity significantly during the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter capacity hints at a 55.6% decline from second-quarter 2019 reported capacity.

With fuel expenses comprising a major chunk of airline expenditures, low fuel prices are expected to have aided the bottom line, thus partly offsetting the decline in passenger revenues. The carrier estimates fuel price of $1.25-$1.35 per gallon for the second quarter compared with $2.13 reported in the year-ago period. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same implies a 44.1% decline from the year-ago reported number.

Southwest Airlines Co. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Southwest Airlines Co. Price and EPS Surprise

Southwest Airlines Co. price-eps-surprise | Southwest Airlines Co. Quote

Earnings Whispers

The proven Zacks model predicts an earnings beat for Southwest in the second quarter of 2020. This is because the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Earnings ESP: Southwest has an Earnings ESP of +18.02% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at a loss of $2.14 while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pinned at a loss of $2.61. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Southwest carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Highlights of Q1 Earnings

In the last-reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 68.7% with narrower-than-expected loss. Operating revenues lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate and also declined 17.8% year over year with passenger revenues sliding 19% due to coronavirus-induced drop in passenger demand.

Other Stocks to Consider

Investors interested in the broader Transportation sector may also consider United Airlines (UAL - Free Report) , Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK - Free Report) and Air Lease Corporation (AL - Free Report) as these stocks too possess the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

United Airlines has an Earnings ESP of +20.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company will release second-quarter earnings on Jul 21.

Alaska Air has an Earnings ESP of +16.33% and a Zacks Rank #3. This company is set to release second-quarter financial numbers on Jul 23.

Air Lease has an Earnings ESP of +23.32% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will announce second-quarter earnings numbers on Aug 6.

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