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Why You Should Hold Progressive (PGR) Stock in Your Portfolio

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The Progressive Corporation (PGR - Free Report) is poised to grow on a compelling portfolio, prudent underwriting and solid market positioning. The stock carries an impressive VGM Score of A. Here V stands for Value, G for Growth and M for Momentum, with the score being a weighted combination of all three factors.

The leading auto insurer has been continually improving its return on equity over the years. Return on equity of 29% in the trailing twelve months was better than the industry average of 6.2%, reflecting the company’s efficiency in utilizing shareholders’ fund.  In the five years since Dec 31, 2014, Progressive shareholders’ returns were 25.1%, compared with 11.7% for the S&P 500.

Why Hold is an Apt Strategy?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2020 earnings indicates 2.1% year-over-year increase on about 10% higher revenues. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 6.2%. It carries a Growth Score of B. The Growth Score analyzes a company’s growth prospects.

Shares of Progressive have gained 31.4% year to date against the industry's decrease of 9.2%. Meanwhile, the Zacks S&P 500 composite has risen 5.9%. Progressive delivered earnings beat in three of the last four quarters.



Moreover, its Earnings ESP of +3.01% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Progressive will report its third-quarter earnings on Oct 14. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Given its expanded multi-product lineup, solid policies in force, service to customers opting for a combination of home and auto insurance; leadership in underwriting technology and application of quantitative analytics in pricing and risk selection should help retain the momentum. The company is poised to continue to grow its premium.

Progressive boasts being one of the largest auto insurance groups in the United States, the largest seller of motorcycle policies, the market leader in commercial auto insurance, and one of the top 15 homeowners carriers, based on premiums written.

Being a property and casualty insurer, Progressive is exposed to catastrophe loss, which renders volatility to its underwriting results. Nonetheless, its combined ratio, a measure of underwriting profitability, averaged less than 93% over the last 10 years and compares favorably with the industry average of more than 100%.
    
Progressive has been pursing strategic buyouts through which it can leverage its competitive prices to drive new sales growth. It also intends leveraging scale and capitalizing on technology to lower operating expenses.

Though the company’s debt-to-capital ratio has been fluctuating over the years, it targets debt-to-capital ratio below 30. Also, its debt servicing capacity betters the industry average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate has moved up 0.9% for 2020 and 0.5% for 2021 over the past seven days, reflecting analysts’ optimism.

Stocks to Consider

Some better-ranked companies from the same space include Fidelity National Financial (FNF - Free Report) , First American Financial Corporation (FAF - Free Report) and Hallmark Financial Services (HALL - Free Report) .
    
Fidelity National delivered an earnings surprise of 53.52% in the last-reported quarter. It sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank.

First American Financial delivered earnings surprise of 26.51% in the last-reported quarter. It carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Hallmark delivered earnings surprise of 180.00% in the last-reported quarter. It carries a Zacks Rank #2.

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