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B2Gold (BTG) Shares Up 73% YTD: What's Driving the Rally?

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B2Gold Corp. (BTG - Free Report) is well poised to gain from ongoing solid performances of its operating mines and expected savings from focus on cost management. The company’s shares have gained 73.3% so far this year, compared with the industry’s growth of 42.9%. Notably, the S&P 500 rallied 8% in the said period.

The company has been delivering growth in both its top and bottom lines in the past six quarters. The trend is expected to continue in the near term, supported by rally in gold prices and low costs, despite COVID-19 woes. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.03%, on average.

B2Gold has a market capitalization of $7.3 billion. Average volume of shares traded in the past three months was 7.9 million. It has a long-term estimated earnings per share growth rate of 19.5%, higher than the industry’s projected earnings growth rate of 14.1%.


 
Let’s delve deeper and analyze the factors driving the stock.

Driving Factors

B2Gold’s total gold production in the first half of 2020 was a record 490,206 ounces, which was 5% above budget with year-over-year growth of 20%. All of its operating mines — Fekola Mine in Mali, the Otjikoto Mine in Namibia and the Masbate Mine in Philippines, exceeded their targeted production. Backed by this performance, B2Gold reaffirmed the consolidated production guidance for the year. The company expects gold production between 1,000,000 and 1,055,000 ounces for 2020.

B2Gold reported 44% growth in revenues in first-quarter 2020 followed by a 65% surge in the second quarter, driven by higher realized gold price and increasing gold ounces sold. Total gold revenues for the first half of 2020 came in at a record $822 million, marking a 55% jump from the year-ago comparable period. In the first quarter and second quarter of 2020, B2Gold’s earnings improved 233% and 120%, respectively, driven by solid revenues and low costs.

In early September, the company announced that it has successfully commissioned the mill expansion at its flagship Fekola mine — ahead of the scheduled date of Sep 30, 2020. This has added to its share price rally as the mine expansion and the larger mining fleet are likely to increase Fekola's processing throughput significantly by 1.5 million tons per annum (Mtpa) to 7.5 Mtpa. The mine expansion will enable the company to produce around 550,000 ounces of gold over the next five years.

Gold has gained 27% so far this year primarily owing to the coronavirus pandemic. Ongoing concerns regarding spiking COVID-19 infection rates in several locations and a likely second wave as economies reopen will continue to work in favor of gold prices. The uncertainty over the upcoming U.S presidential election will also boost safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. This is likely to get reflected in B2Gold’s top-line performance in the forthcoming quarters.

With higher gold production forecast for 2020, expected benefits from B2Gold’s ongoing cost control actions and the sale of its higher-cost Nicaraguan mines, consolidated cash operating costs per ounce and AISC per ounce are anticipated to decline in the current year.  Cash operating costs are projected be down 15% year over year to $415-$455 per ounce, while All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) is expected between $780 per ounce and $820 per ounce, down 7% from the year-ago level. Higher gold prices and lower costs are likely to bolster the company’s margins during the year.

Positive Growth Projections

Earnings estimates for 2020 and 2021 have moved north by 2% and 12%, respectively, in the past 90 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s current-year earnings is pegged at 48 cents per share, suggesting year-over-year growth of 243%. The same for 2021 stands at 56 cents, indicating year-over-year improvement of 16.3%.

Zacks Rank & Stocks to Consider

B2Gold currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks in the same industry include Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) , Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO - Free Report) and Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD - Free Report) . All of these stocks currently sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Agnico Eagle Mines has a projected earnings growth rate of 104% for the current year. The company’s shares have gained 34% year to date.

Eldorado Gold has an estimated earnings growth rate of 2444% for fiscal 2020. So far this year, its shares have appreciated 55%.

Barrick Gold has an expected earnings growth rate of 94% for fiscal 2020. Year to date, the company’s shares have surged 51%.

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