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Mosaic (MOS) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter 2020 results on Nov 2, after the closing bell.

Mosaic’s third-quarter results are likely to reflect the benefits of phosphate fertilizer products prices and higher volumes at Mosaic Fertilizantes and Phosphates units.

Mosaic’s shares have lost 12.3% in the past year compared with the industry’s 9.1% decline.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What to Expect in Q3

Mosaic released monthly sales volume figures for its segments.

In the Potash unit, it recorded sales volume of 743,000 tons in July and 741,000 tons in August.  On a year-over-year basis, sales volumes for July and August fell around 5.7% and 1.9%, respectively.
In Phosphates, the company reported 676,000 tons in July and 743,000 tons in August. On a year-over-year basis, sales volumes for July and August mark a rise of 17% and 6.4%, respectively.

In the Mosaic Fertilizantes unit, sales volumes were 1,201,000 tons in July and 1,266,000 tons in August. On a year-over-year basis, the sales volumes for July and August increased 16.7% and 2%, respectively.

Other Factors at Play

In second-quarter 2020 earnings call, the company stated that it expects high tonnage and higher utilization rates to continue in the third quarter. For both phosphates and potash, Mosaic expects relatively normal volumes in the third quarter.

The company also stated that phosphate fertilizer products prices have strengthened globally, reflecting tightening supply and demand balance. Further, it expects potash prices to be stable.  

What do the Estimates Indicate?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mosaic’s third-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $2,409 million, which calls for a decline of 12.5% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales in the Phosphates segment is currently pegged at $816 million, which calls for a modest fall of 0.5% year over year.

Moreover, the consensus mark for net sales in the Potash segment is currently pegged at $467 million, which calls for a fall of 24.2% year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment is currently pegged at $1,206 million, which calls for a decline of 13.1% year over year.

The Mosaic Company Price and EPS Surprise

The Mosaic Company Price and EPS Surprise

The Mosaic Company price-eps-surprise | The Mosaic Company Quote

Zacks Model

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Mosaic this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Mosaic is -1.38%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate are currently pegged at 22 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Mosaic carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks Likely to Beat Estimates

Here are some companies that you may want to consider as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Olin Corporation (OLN - Free Report) , scheduled to release third-quarter 2020 earnings on Nov 4, has an Earnings ESP of +6.25% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Albemarle Corporation (ALB - Free Report) , scheduled to release third-quarter 2020 earnings on Nov 4, has an Earnings ESP of +5.73% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Domtar Corporation , slated to release third-quarter 2020 earnings on Nov 6, has an Earnings ESP of +57.14% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

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