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Pioneer Natural (PXD) to Report Q3 Earnings: A Beat in Store?

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Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD - Free Report) is expected to beat earnings estimates when it reports third-quarter 2020 results on Nov 4, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company came up with a loss of 32 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 35 cents, supported by higher oil equivalent production volumes. This was partially offset by lower realized prices of crude oil.

Pioneer Natural — which recently made headlines after announcing the $4.5 billion all-stock acquisition of Parsley Energy, Inc. — beat earnings estimates thrice and missed once in the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 7.5%, as shown in the chart below.

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the announcement.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings of 14 cents per share has seen one upward movement and eight downward revisions in the past 30 days. The figure suggests a year-over-year decline of 93%.

Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.5 billion for the quarter, indicating a decline of 35.7% from the year-ago reported figure.

What the Quantitative Model Suggests

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Pioneer Natural this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Pioneer Natural has an Earnings ESP of +36.90%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate for the quarter is currently pegged at 19 cents, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 14 cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: It currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Factors Driving Better-Than-Expected Earnings

Exploration and production company, Pioneer Natural's third-quarter output is expected to have received a boost from operations in the Permian, the most prolific basin in the United States. For third-quarter 2020, the company expects daily oil equivalent production in the range of 341-356 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d). The upper limit is higher than the year-ago figure of 351 MBoe/d.

Moreover, natural gas production is expected to be 400 thousand cubic feet per day (Mcf/d), indicating a rise from the year-ago level of 364 Mcf/d. The consensus estimate for average price realizations for natural gas is $1.59 per Mcf, signaling a rise from the year-ago period’s $1.54.

However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for average crude oil production volumes is pegged at 199 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d), indicating a decline from the year-ago level of 215 MBbls/d. Also, the consensus estimate for average price realizations for crude oil is $37.99 per barrel, indicating a steep fall from the year-ago period’s $54. This will likely result in a massive year-over-year decline in profit levels.

Although decreased oil production and realized prices are likely to reflect on the company’s third-quarter results, increased natural gas output and realized gas prices are expected to enable it to deliver an earnings beat.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some other companies from the Energy space that you may also want to consider, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

DCP Midstream, LP has an Earnings ESP of +4.77% and a Zacks Rank of #1. It is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov 4. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Sunoco LP (SUN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.00% and holds a Zacks Rank #1. It is set to report third-quarter results on Nov 4.

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