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Vaxart (VXRT) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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We expect investors to focus on Vaxart, Inc.’s (VXRT - Free Report) development efforts for its oral tablet COVID-19 vaccine candidate VXA-CoV2-1, when it reports third-quarter 2020 earnings results.

The company’s surprise record has been mixed so far as its bottom line beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, missed the same once and met the mark on another occasion, the average miss being 2.58%. In the last reported quarter, Vaxart witnessed a negative earnings surprise of 71.43%.

Shares of Vaxart have skyrocketed 1320.8% so far this year against the industry’s decrease of 11.4%.

Price Chart for Vaxart


Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.

Factors to Note

On third-quarter earnings call, investors’ will likely keep tabs on the progress of Vaxart’s pipeline of various vaccine candidates, especially the coronavirus vaccine.

In October 2020, Vaxart dosed the first subject in a phase I study, which is evaluating its oral coronavirus vaccine candidate VXA-CoV2-1. The dose-ranging study is examining the safety and immunogenicity of two doses (low or high) of the oral tablet VXA-CoV2-1 in healthy adult volunteers, aged between 18 years and 54 years. Enrollment in the same is expected to be completed in the ongoing month.

The study and development activities related to VXA-CoV2-1 are likely to have escalated the company’s operating expense in the to-be-reported quarter.

Notably, the oral vaccine candidate is being developed, leveraging the company’s proprietary oral vaccine platform VAAST. Vaxart’s COVID-19 candidate is the only oral vaccine to be selected as part of the U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed (OWS) program, which is a new national program to provide substantial quantities of a safe and effective vaccine for the Americans by January 2021.

We note that Vaxart has a contract with Emergent BioSolutions (EBS - Free Report) and Kindred Biosciences, to produce bulk vaccines under cGMP for its clinical studies.  The oral vaccine tablets will be manufactured at Vaxart. We expect the company to discuss the development path forward and the progress of its coronavirus vaccine candidate on its third-quarter earnings call.

Apart from coronavirus, Vaxart has been developing vaccines against norovirus and influenza. The company has a collaboration contract with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) to develop an influenza vaccine. It may discuss the level of progress made in developing these vaccines during its upcoming earnings call. Meanwhile, the company’s third-quarter top line is likely to have been driven by revenues from its contract with J&J.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vaxart this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Vaxart has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and the Most Accurate Estimate are pegged at a loss of 9 cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Vaxart currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stock to Consider

Here is a drug/biotech stock worth considering from the same space as our model shows that it has the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.23% and a Zacks Rank #3, currently. The company is scheduled to report earnings on Nov 5. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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