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Can Coronavirus Vaccine Efforts Aid BioNTech (BNTX) Q3 Earnings?

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We expect BioNTech SE (BNTX - Free Report) to surpass expectations when it reports third-quarter 2020 results on Nov 10, before the market opens.

The company’s surprise record has been mixed so far as its bottom line beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and lagged the same on the other two occasions, the average miss being 15.08%. In the last reported quarter, BioNTech delivered a negative earnings surprise of 44.83%.

Shares of BioNTech have skyrocketed 157.4% so far this year against the industry’s decrease of 8%.

Price Chart for BioNTech

Let’s see how things are shaping up for the quarter to be reported.

Factors to Note

BioNTech's portfolio is currently devoid of any approved product. Hence, we expect investors’ focus to be on the company’s pipeline development during the third-quarter conference call.

The company has been actively engaged in developing a potential vaccine for preventing COVID-19 infection. It is conducting the vaccine program in collaboration with Fosun Pharma in China and globally with the pharma giant Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) in other parts outside China.

Collaboration revenues are expected to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter from the prior-year period’s reported number following the above-mentioned partnerships, which BioNTech forged in the first quarter of 2020.

Key Updates on Vaccine Development in Q3

The vaccine candidate, BNT162b2 is currently in phase III development with more than 42,000 participants having been already enrolled in the study, which is currently being conducted in the United States, Brazil, Argentina and Europe.

Last month, BioNTech/Pfizer began the rolling submission of their mRNA-based coronavirus vaccine candidate to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for speeding up the review process.

Notably, preliminary data from pre-clinical and early clinical studies on BNT162b2 in adult patients showed that the candidate triggers the production of neutralizing antibodies, and TH-1 dominant CD4+ and CD8+ T cells that target SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19. The companies already concluded exploratory talks with the European Commission (EC) for supplying 200 million doses of BNT162b2 with an option to deliver another 100 million doses of the vaccine to the EU member states.

BioNTech/Pfizer also initiated the rolling submission of BNT162b2 to Health Canada.

Meanwhile, BioNTech and Pfizer expect to file the regulatory applications for BNT162b2 in the United States shortly. Eventually, if the vaccine is approved, Pfizer/BioNTech plans to manufacture up to 100 million doses by the end of 2020 and potentially more than 1.3 billion doses by 2021 end.

This apart, BioNTech’s pipeline boasts several prospective candidates, such as BNT111, the company’s mRNA-based FixVac cancer vaccine program and BNT113, BNT114, BNT122, BNT131 to name a few, which are in early- to mid-stage studies for addressing various oncological indications. An update on the above-mentioned developments is expected during the upcoming earnings call.

The study and developmental activities related to the company’s pipeline candidates are likely to have escalated its operating expense in the to-be-reported quarter.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for BioNTech this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: BioNTech has an Earnings ESP of +21.74% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of 46 cents per share while the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at a loss of 36 cents.

Zacks Rank: BioNTech has a Zacks Rank #3, currently.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other drug/biotech stocks worth considering from the same space as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.23% and a Zacks Rank of 3, currently. The company is scheduled to report earnings on Nov 5. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Compugen (CGEN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.69% and a Zacks Rank #2, presently. The company is scheduled to report earnings on Nov 5.

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