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Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine Data Raises Hopes for Industry, Economy

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Pfizer, Inc. (PFE - Free Report) and its Germany-based partner, BioNTech’s (BNTX - Free Report) first interim data from a phase III study on their mRNA-based coronavirus vaccine candidate, BNT162b2, showed that the candidate was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 in participants without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The interim efficacy analysis was conducted by an external, independent Data Monitoring Committee (DMC).

The large global phase III study enrolled 43,538 participants with diverse backgrounds. The vaccine is being given in two shots, the second dose given three weeks after the first.  To date, 38,955 participants have been given a second dose of the vaccine. The data showed that protection from COVID-19 began 28 days after the first dose was administered. 94 participants in the study were infected with COVID-19.

No serious safety concerns have been observed to date. Additional safety and efficacy data continue to be assessed and the companies will release final data after 164 participants have been infected with COVID-19.

Pfizer and BioNTech selected BNT162b2, out of four mRNA-based coronavirus vaccine candidates, for late-stage development as it demonstrated better results in early-stage studies. They began global phase III development in July.

For emergency use authorization in the United States for a potential COVID-19 vaccine, the FDA requires companies to provide two months of safety data on half of the trial participants, after the final dose of the vaccine is administered. Pfizer estimates that it will reach this safety milestone in the third week of November and expects to file for EUA as soon as this milestone is reached. The vaccine efficacy percentage may vary on final analysis. Pfizer plans to manufacture up to 50 million doses by the end of this year, if approval is received and potentially up to 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021.

While Pfizer’s shares were up 7.7% on Monday, BioNTech’s stock rose 13.9% in response to the news.

While Pfizer carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), BioNTech is a #4 Ranked (Sell) stock.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

What Does Pfizer’s Data Mean for Others?

The strong initial efficacy readout on the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine bodes well for Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) , which is also making a mRNA based COVID-19 vaccine. Its stock was up 7.3% on Monday. Its vaccine, mRNA-1273, is also in phase III development and the company expects to release two-month safety follow-up data on by the end of November. Currently, Pfizer & Moderna are the frontrunners to bring a COVID-19 vaccine to the market.

On the other hand, with Pfizer/BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate proving to be 90% effective, the benchmark has been set quite high. Even though efficacy percentage may be a bit less than 90% once the full data is available, it  should still be good enough. Though experts remain skeptical till they see the final data as there remain many unanswered questions like how long the immunity from the vaccine may last, the 90% efficacy rate is still quite solid. All other vaccine candidates will likely need to show similar safety and efficacy data as they compete for market share. 

This probably caused shares of AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) to decline around 3% on Monday. Just last week, AstraZeneca resumed late-stage clinical studies on its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, AZD1222, in the United States after they were paused in September

J&J’s (JNJ - Free Report) stock was up 2.7%. J&J also resumed recruitment in the large pivotal phase III study, ENSEMBLE, on its coronavirus vaccine candidate, JNJ-78436735, recently. The study was paused in October due to an unexplained illness observed in a study participant. While J&J is testing a single dose of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, the other three companies whose candidates are in late-stage development, Pfizer/BioNTech, AstraZeneca/Oxford University and Moderna are testing two shots of their respective candidates.

AstraZeneca and J&J are using different technologies than Pfizer for making their vaccine candidates.

Impact of the Data on Global Markets

The world is waiting for the pharma sector to launch a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine as infection rates are on the rise. No doubt, the global markets rallied on Monday after Pfizer released the first successful interim data from a large-scale clinical study. The S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones hit record highs. Stocks of sectors like travel, tourism, restaurant, gaming and others, which had borne the brunt of the pandemic-related business disruption, also rose on Monday. Though there is still a long way to go before the vaccine is launched, any positive news on a vaccine is good news for the world economy, giving hopes of normalization next year.

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