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Transition, Vaccines and Retail Sales Make for a Good Week

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Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Market indexes are picking up right where they left off at yesterday’s closing bell: cruising through the Thanksgiving-shortened holiday week (Thursday markets are closed; Friday closes after a half-day), up strongly between a half-point and a full point before the opening bell. Of course, the Covid vaccine candidates are giving investors a glimpse of a world beyond the pandemic next year, and retail sales take off beginning this week, but there are other considerations, as well.

President-elect Biden’s transition now looks like nothing so much as a simple two-week delay, and cabinet-member announcements are bringing us to a return to normalcy. In particular, Biden’s selection of ex-Fed Chair Janet Yellen appears to set market participants’ minds at ease; Biden looks to be building an administration more centrist that some had feared. Also, Chinese stocks look to have been given a boost on the transition, as President Trump’s trade-war tariffs may be a thing of the past. Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is up another 5% this morning on a Biden administration’s positive sentiment for green energy and electric vehicles, but Chinese EV maker Nio (NIO - Free Report) leaves Tesla’s returns in the dust.

Meanwhile, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index has come out with its September report this morning, with a headline figure of 7% well ahead of the previous month’s upwardly revised 5.8%. It’s the highest single-month growth figure in more than six years, going back to May of 2014. Led by the usual cities — Phoenix (for the 16th straight month), Seattle and San Diego, which put up 11.4%, 10.1% and 9.5%, respectively — all 19 of the 20-cities in the survey (minus Detroit, which has not been included for a while now) went up in value. Housing remains a very strong market.

After today’s opening bell, we’ll get a new print on Consumer Confidence for November. Expectations are for a read of 97.3, down a bit from last month’s 100.9.

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