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Black Friday 2020 Has a New Look

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Friday, November 27, 2020

Black Friday 2020 is here and, like most things 2020, it’s notably different than it was before. The raging pandemic (165K new cases and nearly 2000 deaths just yesterday) continues to wreak havoc on retailer foot traffic, and with most publicly traded retailers having upped their online game in recent years, Black Friday may yet prove very successful without it. In years past, we’d see hordes of holiday shoppers crammed against the doors before they opened; that sort of frenzy looks to be a thing of the past.

Estimates are that $6 billion in holiday shopping occurred on Thanksgiving Day alone, when most shops were closed — because they bought online. Further, $10.3 billion in additional revenues are expected online today, growing 33% year over year (according to Adobe Analytics). On Cyber Monday, expectations blossom to roughly $12 billion in holiday shopping sales online this year.

In-store shopping will still have its day, especially for products less likely to be purchased online, such as hardware and home improvement goods at places like Home Depot (HD - Free Report) and Lowe’s (LOW - Free Report) . But in places like Chicago, where “stay at home” advisories have returned, in-store shopping this year will come with restrictions never before seen on Black Friday. Social distance measures by themselves ought to keep the frenzied torrent on slashed-price, limited-supply items at bay. At least let’s hope so, considering the swell in coronavirus cases of late.

Speaking of Covid-19, AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) finds itself under scrutiny regarding its data released last weekend on positive results for its vaccine candidate. The wide range of efficacy — 62-90% — pivoted on dosage regimens, with the initial half-dose measure followed by a full dose actually outperforming the full dose-full dose regimen. It turns out this initial half-dose measure was by accident; the curious part of this has to do with the half-dosage’s increased efficacy.

Looking into the released results, none of the patients undergoing the vaccine trial who received the half-dose first were over the age of 55. Analyst now suspect this may have had something to to do with the improved results overall. AstraZeneca will publish full details of its trial in the near future; at that point it should make more sense how to gauge its candidate’s true efficacy. As a reminder, both the Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) -BioNTech (BNTX - Free Report) vaccine candidate and the Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) candidate posted 95% efficacy.

Markets close early today, at 1pm ET, in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. This is a typical occurrence going back many years. However, we may have more market participants in front of their trading screens, as the pandemic kept more Americans at home this year. Normally volume is weak on Black Friday; we’ll see if 2020 changes the look of this, as well.

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