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Stellar Model 3/Y Deliveries to Buoy Tesla's (TSLA) Q4 Earnings

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Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter 2020 results on Jan 27, after the closing bell. The electric vehicle manufacturer’s upcoming results will likely reflect the favorable impact of rising Model 3/Y deliveries, which form a major chunk of the automaker’s overall deliveries.

(Also read: Is a Beat Likely for Tesla This Earnings Season?)

Q3 Highlights

In the last reported quarter, Tesla posted earnings of 76 cents per share, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 55 cents. Importantly, the red-hot EV maker posted profit for the fifth straight quarter, with the metric growing 105.4% on a year-over-year basis. Total automotive revenues surged 42% year over year to $7,611 million. Tesla had cash and cash equivalents of $14,531 million as of Sep 30, 2020 compared with $5,338 million on Sep 30, 2019. Importantly, the firm generated free cash flow of $1,395 million during the third quarter.

During the September-end quarter, Tesla reported delivery and production of 145,036 and 139,593 vehicles, respectively, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 5% each. The company reported Model 3/Y production and deliveries of 75,946 and 80,277 units, pointing to a year-over-year increase of 44% and 51%, respectively. The production rate of Model 3/Y persistently improved during this period.Model 3/Y registered production and deliveries of 128,044 and 124,318 vehicles, implying a year-over-year increase of 60% and 56%, respectively. 

Production & Deliveries in Q4

With the Model 3 sedan being its flagship vehicle, Tesla has established itself as a leader in the electric vehicle (EV) segment. Solid performance and impressive design of its products are expected to have ramped up sales volumes during the quarter under review. Being the first mass-market electric car in North America and Europe, Model 3 is one of the best-selling vehicles. The car’s market-leading safety, performance and impressive specs have made it a huge success. Also, ramped up production and deliveries of Model Y vehicles are likely to have buoyed the automaker’s earnings during the quarter under review.

Tesla reported stellar fourth-quarter 2020 production and deliveries amid a sustained recovery of the auto sector, thanks to increasing popularity of green vehicles, preference for personal mobility, easier credit conditions, and hopes of economic recovery buoyed by vaccination optimism as well as fiscal stimulus.

The EV king registered production and deliveries of 180,570 and 179,757 vehicles, respectively, in the December-end period, way higher than the 104,891 units produced and 112,000 units delivered in the corresponding quarter of 2019. The delivery count marks a 28.7% and 60.5% jump on a sequential and yearly basis, respectively, and sets a new quarterly record for the auto giant. Defying the coronavirus crisis, Tesla was able to boost vehicle production and deliveries by ramping up Model 3 and Y production, along with inking agreements with new battery cell suppliers in order to produce more high-voltage battery packs that steer its electric cars. 
For the quarter in discussion, the Model 3/Y division registered production of 163,660 vehicles, while 161,650 vehicles were delivered. The reported figures are way higher than the production of 86,958 units and delivery of 92,550 units of Model 3/Y during the year-ago quarter.

Tesla has been benefiting from high sales in China — the world’s leading EV market. The company sold 12,143, 21,604 and 23,804 Model 3 vehicles in China for the months of October, November and December, according to China Passenger Car Association.

Overall Earnings & Revenue Projections for Q4

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is pegged at 87 cents, indicating an increase from 43 cents a share posted in the prior-year quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of more than $10 million for sales indicates a 38% jump on a year-over-year basis.

All in all, robust Model 3/Y demand, significant Shanghai Gigafactory progress, and solid performance of the energy and storage business are likely to have aided Tesla’s performance during the to-be-reported quarter.

Tesla — which shares space with auto biggies including General Motors (GM - Free Report) , Ford (F - Free Report) and Toyota (TM - Free Report) — currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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