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Chipotle (CMG) Q4 Earnings & Revenues Lag Estimates, Stock Down

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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2020 results, with earnings and revenues missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but increasing on a year-over-year basis.

Following the results, the company’s shares declined 2.8% in after-hour trading session on Feb 2. Investors’ sentiments might have been impacted by lower-than-expected quarterly results and the company’s inability to provide its comparable restaurant sales growth guidance for 2021 due to uncertainty related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Q4 Earnings & Revenues Discussion

During the fourth quarter of 2020, adjusted earnings of $3.48 per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.70. However, the bottom line increased 21.7% from $2.86 reported in the year-ago quarter.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

 

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Quote

 

Meanwhile quarterly revenues of $1,607.7 million missed the consensus mark of $1,608 million by 0.2%. However, the top line increased 11.6% on a year-over-year basis. The upside can be primarily attributed to strength in digital sales, rise in delivery menu price along with new restaurant openings. In the quarter under review, Chipotle opened 60 new restaurants (including two restaurant relocations) and closed one, taking the total restaurant count to 2,768.

Digital sales surged 177.2% year over year to $781.4 million during fourth-quarter 2020. Digital sales contributed 49% to sales during the quarter. Notably, collaboration with all major third-party delivery aggregators boosted orders for the company. Also, the addition of Chipotlanes drove the company’s performance, enhancing guest access and convenience.

Comps in the fourth quarter increased 5.7%, following growth of 8.3% in the third quarter of 2020. Notably, healthy demand for Carne Asada along with strong digital sales contributed to the company’s results.

Costs, Operating Highlights & Net Income

During the fourth quarter of 2020, food, beverage and packaging costs, as a percentage of revenues, declined 210 basis points (bps) year over year to 31%. The improvement can be attributed to increase in menu prices, favorable usage of protein mix and better waste control management. However, this was partially offset by rise in dairy prices along with fewer sales of high margin beverages.

During the fourth quarter, restaurant-level operating margin came in at 19.5%, up from 19.2% recorded in the year-ago quarter. The improvement was primarily backed by leverage from the comparable restaurant sales growth, rise in menu prices and lower avocado pricing. However, this was partially offset by increased delivery expenses, exclusion pay and fewer sales of high-margin beverages.

Adjusted net income in the reported quarter amounted to $99.3 million compared with $81 million in the prior-year quarter.

Balance Sheet

A strong balance sheet will help the company tide over the coronavirus-induced crisis. The company had $1.1 billion in cash, restricted cash and short-term investments as of Dec 31. The company doesn’t have any debt.

Moreover, the company had access to $600 million credit facility to help it navigate through the crisis.

Inventory during the fourth quarter totaled $26.4 million compared with $26.1 million in the prior-year quarter. Goodwill (as a percentage of total assets) came in at 0.4% at the end of fourth-quarter 2020.

2020 Highlights

Net revenues in 2020 came in at $5,984.6 million compared with $5,586.4 million in 2019.

General and administrative expenses in 2020 came in at $466.3 million compared with $451.6 million in 2019.

In 2020, diluted earnings per share came in at $12.52 per share compared with $12.38 in the previous year.

2021 Outlook

Given the volatility and uncertainty regarding the coronavirus impact, the company did not provide its comparable restaurant sales growth guidance for 2021.

Meanwhile, the company expects to open nearly 200 new restaurants in 2021. However, the new openings might face minimal construction and permit delays owing to the pandemic. Also, it expects 2021 tax rate in the range of 25-27%.

Zacks Rank & Key Picks

Chipotle currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Some better-ranked stocks in the same space include Del Taco Restaurants, Inc. , Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK - Free Report) and Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM - Free Report) , each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Del Taco has a three-five-year earnings per share growth rate of 15%.

Jack in the Box’s 2021 earnings are expected to rise 20.4%.

Yum! Brands has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.9%, on average.

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