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Assurant's (AIZ) Q4 Earnings Coming Up: What's in Store?

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Assurant, Inc. (AIZ - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter 2020 results on Feb 9, after market close. The company beat estimates in three of the last four quarters, delivering an earnings surprise of 18.5%, on average.

Factors at Play

Assurant’s fourth-quarter performance is likely to have been impacted by mobile subscriber growth, lower expenses, and growth in specialty property businesses.

Global Lifestyle is likely to have benefited from favorable international claims activity in Connected Living and prior period sales in Global Automotive as well as continued mobile subscriber growth and lower expenses, and improved profitability from extended service contracts. The company expects claims activity in Connected Living and Global Automotive to normalize further in the fourth quarter. The company expects an uptick in trade-in activity in the fourth quarter.

Global Housing’s performance is likely to have been driven by continued growth in multifamily housing from affinity partners and specialty property businesses. The company expects to see more normalized non-cat loss experience, lower real estate owned (REO) volumes due to foreclosure moratoriums that have now been extended through the remainder of 2020, and lower investment income due to lower yields.  In the fourth quarter, it also expects Hurricane Delta to be a reportable event likely in the range of $12 million to $20 million pre-tax subject to further claims analysis.

The company expects investment income to be impacted by lower investment yields coming from new business.

Global Preneed is expected to have benefited from continued growth in sales of Final Need product and lower mortality risk.

All these factors combined are likely to have been driven by revenue improvement.

Lower interest expense, underwriting, general and administrative expenses and loss on extinguishment of debt are likely to have decreased expenses in the fourth quarter.

Continued share buybacks might have provided support to the bottom line.

For the to-be-reported quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings is pegged at $2.08 per share, indicating a decline of 7.5% from the year-ago reported figure.

What the Zacks Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Assurant this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Assurant has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the both Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $2.08 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Assurant, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Zacks Rank: Assurant currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Some stocks worth considering from the insurance sector with the apt combination of elements to surpass estimates this reporting cycle are as follows:

American International Group, Inc. (AIG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.85% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Trean Insurance Group, Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +12.50% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked stock.

The Allstate Corporation (ALL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.67% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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