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Illumina (ILMN) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Illumina, Inc. (ILMN - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 results on Feb 11, after market close.

In the last-reported quarter, the company’s earnings of $1.02 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 32.5%. Over the trailing four quarters, its earnings outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and missed the same in one, the average beat being 13.92%.

Let's discuss factors that are likely to have impacted its performance in the quarter.

Factors at Play

Illumina, during its third-quarter earnings call in October, had confirmed that its business has been registering strong rebound over the past few months, with the third-quarter witnessing a faster-than-expected recovery for both its clinical and research customers. This business recovery is likely to have continued through each of the months of the fourth quarter, thus pushing up the top line. However, the emergence of the new strain of coronavirus along with the surge in cases of new infections looms large on the company’s fourth-quarter revenues.

Sequencing Products

Illumina recorded a strong sequential growth in its Sequencing revenues in the third quarter. Further, its Sequencing consumables revenues also registered robust sequential growth on the back of strength in the company’s high-, mid- and low-throughput product portfolio. Illumina’s NextSeq has also been performing quite impressively over the past few months. Illumina’s mid-throughput portfolio’s product, NextSeq 2000, has also been witnessing favorable customer feedback and demand over the past few months. NextSeq 550 has also been maintaining its strength over the past few months. These are likely to have continued during the fourth quarter as well, thus driving up the top line.

Illumina, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Illumina, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Illumina, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Illumina, Inc. Quote

Illumina’s NovaSeq’s shipments have been robust over the recent months on the back of rebound in demand from customers who had delayed purchases due to the pandemic-led shelter-in-place policies. Sequencing instrument placements has also been robust over the past few months due to continued strength in shipments of NovaSeq and NextSeq platforms. Notably, revenues from China reflected strength in instrument placements in the last-reported quarter. Further, clinical sequencing consumables has been gaining strength over the past few months on the back of strong rebound in both clinical and research customers. These developments are expected to significantly contribute to the fourth-quarter top line.

The commercial availability of the P3 high-output flow cell, which further extends the reach of the NextSeq 2000 Sequencing System since November 2020, is expected to have made significant contributions to the company’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. The availability of NovaSeq 6000 v1.5 Reagent Kit since August 2020 to make whole genome sequencing more accessible and affordable for labs of all sizes is likely to have continued boosting the company’s fourth-quarter revenues as well. Further, Illumina is likely to have continued to gain from UK Biobank, similar to the past few months.

Illumina is likely to have continued to gain during the fourth quarter from the continued adoption of the TruSight Software Suite as well as its COVIDSeq Test (which is a high-throughput sequencing-based in vitro diagnostic or IVD workflow enabling the detection of SARS-CoV-2).

Sequencing Services

The Sequencing Services portfolio has been registering a recovery in revenues over the past few months. Further, oncology development revenues are expected to gradually recover on the back of continued adoption of NGS in cancer treatment. These are expected to push up the fourth-quarter revenues of Illumina.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter total sequencing revenues is pegged at $779 million, suggesting a decline of 6.9% year over year.

Q4 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues of $949.7 million suggests a fall of 0.4% from the prior-year quarter’s figure.

The consensus mark for fourth-quarter earnings of $1.13 per share indicates a 33.5% decline from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Per our proven model, a stock with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) along with a positive Earnings ESP has good chances of beating estimates. However, this is not the case here as you can see:

Earnings ESP: Illumina has an Earnings ESP of +6.73%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Stocks Worth a Look

Here are a few medical stocks worth considering as these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Option Care Health, Inc. (OPCH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +34.69% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Radius Health, Inc. (RDUS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +10.54% and a Zacks Rank of 2, at present.

DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. (XRAY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.45% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked stock.

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