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Exact Sciences (EXAS) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Exact Sciences Corporation (EXAS - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter 2020 results on Feb 16, after the closing bell.

In the last-reported quarter, the company’s loss per share of 36 cents was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 51 cents per share. Moreover, its earnings surpassed the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters, lagged the same in one and met the mark in the other one. The trailing four-quarter average surprise was 7.65%.

Let's see how things are shaping up prior to the announcement.

Factors at Play

Exact Sciences, during its last update in October 2020, had confirmed that Cologuard orders have been gradually improving over the past few months despite the pandemic-led challenges. Notably, the company was impressed with the volume of new Cologuard orders during the last-reported quarter, which stood at approximately 8,000. Further, the company is optimistic about robust contributions to the top line on the back of the colon cancer screening backlog and the Epic conversion. Also, the electronic ordering and improved productivity from the combined sales forces of Exact Sciences and Pfizer are expected to significantly drive up the fourth-quarter revenues.

However, unrelenting spread of the virus looms large on the company’s fourth-quarter revenues as it might impact patient visits and access of the sales force to primary care physician offices.

Exact Sciences Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

 

Exact Sciences Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Exact Sciences Corporation price-eps-surprise | Exact Sciences Corporation Quote

Exact Sciences’ Precision Oncology business has been on the rebound for the past few months on the back of recovery in mammogram volumes. Further, the company had announced the introduction of the Oncotype MAP Pan-Cancer Tissue test for patients with advanced, metastatic, refractory or recurrent cancer in October 2020. The test, which is currently available for physicians in the United States, is likely to have pushed up fourth-quarter revenues of the company.

The company is wary about the widespread uncertainty about the course of the pandemic and related supply chain and capacity constraints. The company, on the back of this uncertainty, expects the COVID-19 testing revenues to be flat to down in the fourth quarter.

Preliminary Q4 Results

Following an outstanding performance in the third quarter of 2020 despite the pandemic-led business challenges, the company has projected that total revenues in the fourth quarter in the range of $464.5-$467.5 million. This reflects a significant uptick of 57.1-58.2% from the reported revenues of $295.6 million in the year-ago period.

The full-year top line is likely to be within $1.490-$1.493 billion, reflecting a significant surge of 70-70.4% from the year-ago reported revenues of $876.3 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2020 revenues is pegged at $1.49 billion, suggesting a 70.2% improvement from the year-ago figure.

On a segmental basis, Screening revenues for the fourth quarter are projected to lie within $249-$250 million, reflecting an increase of 9%. Precision Oncology revenues are likely to be within $117-$118 million whereas COVID-19 testing revenues are expected to be in the range of $98.5-$99.5 million.

Exact Sciences has rallied 25.9% compared with the industry’s 5.2% growth and the S&P 500's 11.6% rise between the period from October to December 2020 despite the challenges posed by the pandemic.

Q4 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2020 revenues is pegged at $465.9 million, suggesting a 57.7% improvement from the year-ago figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s loss per share of 19 cents suggests a 48.7% upsurge from the year-ago figure.

What Our Model Suggests

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Exact Sciences this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Exact Sciences has an Earnings ESP of +46.97%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks Worth a Look

Here are a few other medical stocks worth considering, as these too have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Option Care Health, Inc. (OPCH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +34.69% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.57% and a Zacks Rank of 2, at present.

DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. (XRAY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.09% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked stock.

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