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Vaxart (VXRT) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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We expect investors to focus on Vaxart, Inc.’s (VXRT - Free Report) development efforts for its oral COVID-19 tablet vaccine candidate, VXA-CoV2-1, when it reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings results.

The company’s surprise record has been mixed so far as its bottom line beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, missed the same once and met the mark on another occasion, the average miss being 2.58%. In the last-reported quarter, Vaxart witnessed a positive earnings surprise of 11.11%.

Shares of Vaxart have rallied 41.7% so far this year compared with the industry’s increase of 8.9%.

price chart for VXRT

Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.

Factors to Note

With no approved product in its portfolio, pipeline development remains the key focus for Vaxart. In the last-reported quarter, revenues were down significantly year over year, owing to lower contract revenues, a trend most likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.

Earlier this month, Vaxart announced positive preliminary data from the phase I study evaluating its oral tablet coronavirus vaccine candidate VXA-CoV2-1. The study met primary and secondary endpoints of safety and immunogenicity, respectively. The tablet vaccine was generally well tolerated with no serious adverse side effect being reported.

Moreover, VXA-CoV2-1 was found to be potentially protective against the new and emerging strains of the COVID-19 virus.

Notably, VXA-CoV2-1, may offer enormous logistical advantages as it can be conveniently distributed and administered without the need for cold-chain storage and distribution. We expect management to provide more updates regarding the development of VXA-CoV2-1 at the upcoming investors’ call.

The study and development activities related to VXA-CoV2-1 are likely to have escalated Vaxart’s operating expense in the to-be-reported quarter.

We note that Vaxart has a contract with Emergent BioSolutions (EBS - Free Report) and Kindred Biosciences to produce bulk vaccines under cGMP for its clinical studies.  The oral vaccine tablets will be manufactured at Vaxart. We expect the company to discuss the development path forward and the progress of its coronavirus vaccine candidate on its third-quarter earnings call.

Apart from coronavirus vaccines, Vaxart has been developing vaccines against norovirus and influenza. In the last-reported quarter, the company restarted its norovirus vaccine program with a booster study in subjects that were primed in the previously conducted phase Ib norovirus study. Management may discuss the level of progress made in developing these vaccines during its upcoming earnings call.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vaxart this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Vaxart’s Earnings ESP is 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of 8 cents per share.

Zacks Rank: Vaxart currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Vaxart, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise


VAXART, INC. Price and EPS Surprise

Vaxart, Inc. price-eps-surprise
| Vaxart, Inc. Quote

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of an earnings beat.

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.92% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc. (ALDX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.60% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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