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Is a Beat in Store for Diamondback (FANG) in Q4 Earnings?

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Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter 2020 results on Monday Feb 22, after the closing bell.

The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is pegged at 80 cents per share and the same for revenues stands at $769.77 million.

Against this backdrop, let’s consider the factors that are likely to impact the company’s December-quarter results.

Factors Likely to Impact Q4 Results

The twin acquisitions of Energen Corporation and Ajax Resources in 2018 transformed Diamondback into one of the leading Permian Basin oil producers, driving significant production growth, a trend that most likely continued in the fourth quarter as well.

Precisely, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter average daily production is pegged at 291,030 barrels of oil-equivalent per day (Boe/d), indicating a rise from the sequential quarter’s reported figure of 287,315 Boe/d. Moreover, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Diamondback’s average daily production of oil is pegged at 174,000 barrels per day, higher than the sequential quarter’s reported figure of 170,000 barrels.

Also, this Permian pure play’s top line is likely to have benefited in the fourth quarter as the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the December quarter's average oil price realization indicates an increase from the sequential quarter's reported figure. Precisely, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter average realized crude oil price is pegged at $39 per barrel, implying a rise from the quarter-earlier reported figure of $38.75.

Hence, expected quarterly increase in output and average price realization of crude oil are likely to boost Diamondback’s overall fourth-quarter results.

What Does Our Model Say?

Our proven Zacks model predicts an earnings beat for Diamondback this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Diamondback has an Earnings ESP of +8.58%.

Zacks Rank: Diamondback currently carries a Zacks Rank #2, which increases the predictive power of ESP.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Highlights of Q3 Earnings & Surprise History

Diamondback delivered strong third-quarter 2020 earnings. Better-than-expected production led to this outperformance. Precisely, overall volumes came in at 287.3 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOE/d), beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 286.2 MBOE/d.

The company’s adjusted net income per share of 62 cents outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 37 cents. However, the bottom line plunged 57.8% from the year-ago figure of $1.47 due to weaker average oil price realization.

This Permian pure play’s total revenues of $720 million outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $701 million. However, the top line fell 26.2% from the year-earlier figure of $975 million.

As far as the earnings surprise track is concerned, this Midland, TX-based company shows a solid record with its bottom line having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the trailing four quarterly reports, the average being 121.16%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Diamondback Energy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Diamondback Energy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Diamondback Energy, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Diamondback Energy, Inc. Quote

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other firms worth considering from the energy space on the basis of our model, which shows that these too have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this season:

PDC Energy, Inc. (PDCE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +10.77% and is a #1 Ranked stock, currently. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 24.

Ovintiv Inc. (OVV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.66% and is Zacks #1 Ranked, currently. The company is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 17.

Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.03% and a Zacks Rank #3, currently. The company is scheduled to release earnings on Feb 24.

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