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How is Burlington Stores (BURL) Placed Before Q4 Earnings?

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We expect Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL - Free Report) to report a year-over-year decline in the top and the bottom line when it releases fourth-quarter fiscal 2020 results on Mar 4, before market open. Although the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings has increased 5 cents in the past seven days to $2.12, the same suggests an above 34% plunge from $3.25 earned in the year-ago quarter. For quarterly revenues, the consensus estimate is pegged at $2,082 million, implying a fall of more than 5% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

A glimpse of the company’s performance in the trailing four quarters shows that it reported a negative earnings surprise of 24.1%, on average.

Key Factors to Note

We note that Burlington Stores is not immune to the ill effects of the coronavirus outbreak. The company has been witnessing a soft sales trend for a while due to COVID-led disruptions. Also, management on its last earnings call stated that the company’s fourth quarter of 2020 was off to a weak start with comparable store sales declining low-double digits through Nov 24 on a year-over-year basis due to warmer temperatures.

Moreover, the resurgence in COVID-19 cases and related restrictions by government authorities might sustain the downtrend. For fiscal fourth-quarter 2020, the company had projected gross margin to improve at a lower level than its fiscal third-quarter reading as clearance levels are down year over year. Management had further projected continued deleverage in SG&A and product sourcing expenses for the fourth quarter.

Nevertheless, the company has been optimizing markdowns and effectively managing inventory for sometime now. Moreover, this off-price retailer has been strengthening vendor counts, making technological advancements and focusing on localized assortments. These factors might have provided some cushion to its quarterly performance. In addition, the company’s Burlington 2.0 off-price full potential strategy bodes well, which focuses on improving the execution of its off-price model. These strengths might have aided the company’s quarterly performance.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Burlington Stores this reporting cycle. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Burlington Stores, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Burlington Stores, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Burlington Stores, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Burlington Stores, Inc. Quote

Burlington Stores currently has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +5.91%.

Other Stocks With Favorable Combinations

Here are some other companies worth considering as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Dollar General (DG - Free Report) presently has an Earnings ESP of +1.23% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Purple Innovation (PRPL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.76% and is Zacks #3 Ranked at present.

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.73% and is a #3 Ranked stock.

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