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Will U.S. Airlines' Expansion Spree Boost Summer Trips?

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After being ravaged by the coronavirus-led declining demand for air travel, things are looking up for the U.S. airlines this year. With the gradual reopening of the economy, economic activities are picking up. The upbeat reading on U.S. consumer optimism in March highlights this improving scenario. On Mar 30, 2021, the Conference Board reported that Consumer Confidence in March jumped to a one-year high of 109.7 from the downwardly revised 90.4 in February.

The above buoyant scenario naturally translated into increased air-travel demand. The increasing number of people getting vaccinated by the day also bodes well. Highlighting this rosy scenario, the NYSE ARCA Airline Index has gained a massive 106.6% so far this year.

Improved Bookings Boost Airlines

With air-travel demand gradually bettering in the United States (particularly on the leisure front), U.S. carriers unfurled bullish projections. Evidently, American Airlines’ (AAL - Free Report) management stated that bookings (with respect to the domestic markets and short-haul international flights) recently improved. Reflective of this uptick, the seven-day moving average as of Mar 26 regarding the net bookings at the currently Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) American Airlines was roughly 90% of the level recorded in 2019. Moreover, the reading related to domestic load factor (% of seats filled by passengers) was nearly 80% in the period, further mirroring the recovery in air-travel demand.

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Highlighting the uptrend in booking trends, management of this Fort Worth, TX based carrier stated that it now expects system capacity (measured in available seat miles) for the March quarter to decline nearly in the 40-45% band from the levels achieved in first-quarter 2019. Earlier, the expectation was a decline of 45% for capacity from the first-quarter 2019 reading.

American Airlines apart, other U.S. airline heavyweights like United Airlines (UAL - Free Report) and Southwest Airlines (LUV - Free Report) provided bright projections for the March quarter of 2021. Per Ankit Gupta, vice president of United Airlines’ domestic network planning and scheduling, the airline has seen the “strongest flight bookings since the start of the pandemic” over the past few weeks.

That Americans are slowly taking to the skies again is reflected in the surging number of passengers screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at airports. Notably, more than 1 million passengers passed through the TSA checkpoints each day in the Mar 11-Mar 31 time frame.

Airlines Announce Route Expansion

Driven by the upbeat air-travel demand, traffic is likely to be high during the Memorial Day. Moreover, the upcoming summer season is likely to be a busy one for the U.S. airlines, assuming that the current rebound in air-travel demand stays on.

Evidently, the likes of United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) , Spirit Airlines (SAVE - Free Report) and Alaska Air Group’s (ALK - Free Report) subsidiary Alaska Airlines recently announced intentions to boost their respective domestic networks to meet the anticipated demand swell in the hotter months.

For example, Southwest Airlines aims to initiate services to Myrtle Beach International Airport on May 23. Integral to this expansion boost to the popular vacation attraction in South Carolina, the airline intends to begin operating 10 nonstop routes from the city. Similarly, United Airlines plans to resume more than 20 domestic services this summer and operate more than 100% of its 2019 schedule to Latin America. The carrier expects its overall schedule to be 52% in May 2021 compared with the 2019 levels. This is a significant improvement from the May 2020 tally when the airline operated only 14% of its 2019 schedule.

Moreover, Delta aims to add nine routes during summer. The nine new routes include those that will be added to the tourist-friendly destinations like Bozeman, Montana and Jackson Hole. Incidentally, Delta already operates several flights to Bozeman but to address the anticipated demand hike in summer, the carrier is broadening its base. In addition, this Atlanta-based carrier aims to extend its operations to more than 20 hubs.

Wrapping Up

Airlines will be hoping that the current air-travel demand continues to result in huge air traffic during summer, driven by the significant pent-up demand. This also explains their decisions to widen their domestic networks during the hot season by adding routes to facilitate travel to favorite tourist spots. 

However, the sole concern is the recent spike in coronavirus cases in the United States, which might dampen the demand uptick. Health officials in the country urged people to take necessary precautions to prevent another wave.

Watch this space for further updates on the issue and also wait to see if the current surge in air-travel demand is sustainable or not

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